The party is facing into next year's general election with more reasons to be pessimistic than any other party in the Dail. Of its eight seats, only McDowell's and Harney's can be said to be truly safe, and of the party's new candidates, only Colm O'Gorman looks to have a real chance of taking a seat, and even that is probably a 50-50 call.

The future of Liz O'Donnell, one of the party's most marketable politicians, must remain in doubt. It is no secret that McDowell's style of politics is not to O'Donnell's taste and it remains to be seen if she and others on the liberal wing will stay in the party. McDowell's combustible history in the PDs does not give grounds for optimism that he can heal the divisions that so obviously exist in the party.

And just in case that wasn't enough for the new leader to be getting on with, there is the small matter of the PDs holding the two most challenging and most politically sensitive ministries in the cabinet. The prospect of a winter of discontent in the country's accident and emergency wards cannot be ruled out and the impact on the party's electoral prospects could be catastrophic.

Reasons to be cheerful? If the PDs can take any consolation from the last week's trauma, it is that Michael McDowell is clearly the best person to lead the party into the next general election. Mary Harney has been a formidable politician for the past three decades, but in recent times she has looked simply worn out and lacking the real appetite for the fray. There has been grumbling among the grassroots for some time at a perceived failure to nurture the party more, with many believing her to be exclusively focused on ministerial responsibilities.

Liz O'Donnell, despite her many talents, has failed to show over the past four years that she has the requisite hunger to become leader and drive the party forward. Tom Parlon is a good operator, but his rural base is definitely not what is required in a party increasingly concentrated in Dublin.

McDowell is hungry, ambitious and fiercely hard-working. Crucially, he is the only one of the four to demonstrate clearly that he desperately wants the job. He has always been the intellectual powerhouse of the party. And with the PDs increasingly turning from a party of policies . . .

unquestionably shaping the economic direction of the country for the past two decades . . . to a party of personalities, McDowell's ideas have never been more needed.

Since his return to the PDs, he hasn't been convincing in his role as party president: all the early 'radical' ideas for restructuring and renaming the party have been forgotten. The last local elections, meanwhile, were a disaster as the party made the cardinal error of spreading itself too thinly across too many constituencies. But, given the way he is revered by sections of the party, McDowell is probably the only leader who can lift morale and reinvigorate members.

And, while there is no doubt that McDowell infuriates and enrages many voters, there is a section of the electorate that finds his no-nonsense, aggressive style of politics appealing. His tough line on IRA criminality went down well with many voters, while his new immigration bill, his successful steering through of the citizenship referendum and his brilliant 'single party government . . . no thanks' campaign in the last general election shows that he has an uncanny ability to catch the public mood.

A first-preference vote of 5% will be more than enough for the PDs in next year's general election.

That means McDowell can afford to infuriate and enrage 95% of the electorate and still be a successful leader of the party.

What he cannot afford, however, are the kind of lapses of judgement that saw him label Richard Bruton as Goebbels and ludicrously suggest that Green party supporters were involved in the Dublin riots. His insistence not only on being right but on always being seen to be right . . . a hangover from his L&H debating days at UCD . . . is not compatible with good leadership.

Ironically, the short run in to the next general election may suit McDowell, offering less time to get side-tracked in meaningless disputes and demanding that he concentrate on the bigger picture. Neither will there be time for the type of major repositioning or restructuring of the party that would appeal to McDowell's ego.

The justice minister's recent comment that the next election will be a battle between two competing alliances is a good early sign, suggesting that, as in 2002, McDowell will get to nub of what the general election is about better than anybody.

The PDs are well used to awaiting the next election with trepidation, and people in the party are acutely aware of the dangers that next May's polling day holds. If the party is divided and demoralised in the wake of the whole leadership issue, and if McDowell fails to show the required judgement and leadership, it could be a very long and difficult nine months to the general election campaign. And if, after that election, the party is returned with just three or four deputies and is consigned to the opposition, it's hard to see a future for the PDs.

There is a more optimistic scenario, however: a party re-energised by a driven leader; a small number of eye-catching new policies, a bit of (controlled) McDowell bark 'n' bollock and a focused election campaign which will deliver six or seven TDs. (Any temptation to aim higher than the party's current representation should be strongly resisted. ) That could put the PDs in a position to determine the formation of the next government, in the process securing the medium term future of the party. The only thing we know for certain is that, with McDowell around, it won't be boring.

MICHAEL McDOWELL
Age: 55
Occupation: Minister for Justice
Profession: Barrister
Marital Status: Married to Niamh Brennan, 3 sons

1985
Writes to Des O'Malley urging him to set up a new party. Leaves Fine Gael to become a founding member of the PDs
1987
Elected TD in Dublin South East; becomes party's finance spokesman
1989
Loses Dail seat but retains key role in party as the PDs go into government
1992
Returns as a TD
1997
Loses Dail seat for a second time, pipped by the Green's John Gormley.

Disillusioned with politics, leaves the PDs 1999 Appointed Attorney General 2002 Returns to PD fold as party president 2002 Campaigning with the message 'Single Party Government, No Thanks', wins back Dail seat; appointed Minister for Justice 2006 On the verge of becoming Tanaiste and PD leader