At the last general election, 59% of respondents were satisfied with Harney and only 29% dissatisfied. Just over four years later, those figures have been almost totally reversed with 39% satisfied and 51% dissatisfied. In the period since 2002, dissatisfaction with Harney has steadily risen. This situation has not been helped by her decision to take on the difficult health portfolio.

In today's poll, Harney's personal satisfaction ratings are down 5% to 39% while she also has the highest dissatisfaction rating of all the party leaders. In addition, only 6% believe that she understands the social and economic issues affecting Irish society, a 2% decline on November 2005 when the same question was asked.

The PDs can only hope that Harney's successor is more popular and is also seen as being more in tune with the national mood.

There are two winners in the popularity stakes from today's poll which provides further evidence that Election 2007 will be a contest between the two men who want to be Taoiseach. Bertie Ahern still has a significant edge over all the other party leaders including his main rival, Enda Kenny. The poll results show that while satisfaction with the government is still negative, there has been an increase in Ahern's personal satisfaction rating which is up 3% to 54%. The Fianna Fail leader still remains his party's biggest asset.

Just over one third of opinion-poll respondents believe that Ahern has a better understanding of the social and economic issues affecting Irish society today when compared with the Fine Gael leader. Eighteen percent of respondents are convinced that Enda Kenny has a better grasp of these challenges, a 4% increase on November 2005 when the same question was posed in a similar Sunday Tribune/Millward Brown IMS opinion poll.

Kenny has also seen an increase in his satisfaction rating which, at 46%, is up 2% on the previous poll. It seems Kenny's hard graft is paying some dividends, although Fine Gael will probably be disappointed that there has not been more of an uplift in their man's fortune. Along with Kenny's activity in the constituencies, the party before the summer spent several hundred thousand euro on a national advertising campaign featuring the Fine Gael leader. Slightly more people now believe Kenny would make a better Taoiseach than Bertie Ahern, 29% against 50%, compared to 26% against 51% in the previous poll.

Ahern polls stronger with professionals, those over the age of 50 and rural voters. Kenny support is strongest with women, those in the 1824 age group and with farmers. While 87% of Fianna Fail voters think Ahern would make a better Taoiseach, the corresponding figure for Kenny among Fine Gael voters is lower, at 74%. There is still work to be done in Fine Gael, and party strategists will hope that a new national billboard campaign to be unveiled next month will further convince voters . . . and Fine Gael supporters . . . about Kenny's credentials as an alternative Taoiseach.

While Ahern and Kenny will be personally pleased with their respective satisfaction ratings, the same cannot be said of the other party leaders. Pat Rabbitte's satisfaction rating is down 2% to 44%, while fewer people now (10%) than in November 2005 (12%) are convinced of his understanding of the socio-economic issues affecting the country. It will be a tough challenge for the Labour leader to overturn this poll's findings, especially as the concentration on Kenny and Ahern will only increase as the general election approaches.

There's no movement in the voters' perception of how Trevor Sargent is performing as Green party leader.

Nearly two in five voters still have no opinion on how Sargent is faring, by far the highest level of 'don't knows' among the party leaders. Satisfaction with Gerry Adams is down 7% to 41% although the Sinn Fein leader's ratings received a significant 14% boost in the last poll in November 2005.

That poll was undertaken in the aftermath of the IRA completing the decommissioning of its arsenal of weapons, so the latest satisfaction level for Adams is a return to more normal poll levels.