While Fine Gael and Labour have more than bridged the gap of eight percentage points that existed between them and Fianna Fail at the last general election, the current combined Fine Gael/Labour support at 38% is just one percentage point ahead of Fianna Fail.

Given that Fianna Fail will have a better rate of transfers between its running mates than will exist between Fine Gael and Labour candidates, the alternative government needs to be further ahead of Fianna Fail to secure a higher number of seats than the country's biggest political party.

When the PD vote of 4% is added in, the current coalition has a lead of three percentage points over Fine Gael/Labour (41% to 38%). Again the likelihood of higher transfers between Fianna Fail candidates is likely to ensure that the government's 41% support would deliver proportionally more seats than the combined 38% vote of Fine Gael and Labour.

With the main parties ruling out the prospect of coalition with Sinn Fein, the poll suggests that the Green party could well emerge as kingmaker after the next general election. The party last week notably softened its stance on coalition with Fianna Fail.

The Greens' 5% . . . with a likely return of between five and eight seats . . . could for example put Fianna Fail and the PDs within touching distance of 83 seats and create an unlikely coalition in the process. While pundits have dismissed the prospect of the Greens and the PDs sharing power, the notion of Fine Gael and Democratic Left being in government together was regularly dismissed as ludicrous prior to the formation of the Rainbow coalition in 1994.

If the Greens' 5% is added to the Fine Gael/Labour vote, a potential Rainbow mark II would have a combined support level of 43%. Unless there was an unprecedented level of transfers between the three parties that level of support would not leave them in a position to form a government. Of course, that could change if Fine Gael's support continues to grow and gets close to the 30% mark . . . in the European elections two years ago, the party achieved a vote of 28%.

Many people's bet for the next government . . . a coalition of Fianna Fail and Labour . . . would have a combined strength of 49%, enough for a comfortable majority. This option has been ruled out by Labour leader Pat Rabbitte.

The Fine Gael/Labour alternative government will be encouraged by the high level of dissatisfaction with the government. The figures may not be as bad for the government as they were in the two-year period after the last general election but they still make grim reading for Fianna Fail and the PDs. Over half the voters (52%) are unhappy with the way the government is running the country.

This dissatisfaction is particularly prevalent in Dublin . . . the key battleground for the next general election. Just 38% of voters in the capital are satisfied with the performance of the government . . .

below the two parties' combined electoral support.