Fianna Fail's showing is similar to that achieved in the last Millward Brown IMS poll towards the end of last year. It's a level of support that keeps Fianna Fail part of the game and will give succour to nervous backbenchers who have recently been looking at their political glass as being half empty rather than half full.

The poll results show Fianna Fail achieving a similar support level between men and women. There is a slight bias in support levels towards working-class groups. A worry for the party, however, will be the regional breakdown, with lower support levels in Dublin (34%) against Munster (37%), Connacht/Ulster (38%) and the rest of Leinster (40%). How the seats are filled in the constituencies in the capital will be key to success or failure in Election 2007.

Neither Fianna Fail, nor Fine Gael for that matter, can be happy with their current prospects in Dublin.

There is public fatigue with the current regime . . . reflected in the negative satisfaction rating for the government in today's poll . . . but not enough voters are yet minded to turn to any alternative grouping in sufficient numbers. The opinion poll results suggest that, with a solid run-in to polling day, there is still the possibility that Fianna Fail could be back in government.

With the party in the high 30s, the next election could easily turn into a contest in which any type of coalition government can be formed so long as Fianna Fail is part of that government. Fianna Fail has several assets to help boost its standing with the voters in the months ahead, not least Bertie Ahern himself and the positive economic environment.

It would not be unexpected to see an uplift in Fianna Fail's fortunes following a feel-good budget in December.

The big decision now for Bertie Ahern will be the timing of the election. If he gets it right, he'll be enjoying a third successive term in government, but if he gets it wrong then he'll have plenty of time to tend to his hanging baskets.