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Fine Gael continues its upward trajectory from wreckage of 2002
Shane Coleman



FINE Gael's steady growth in support since February 2005 has continued in the latest Sunday Tribune/ Millward Brown IMS opinion poll.

The party is up two percentage points to 26% from last November.

This figure is just two points short of Fine Gael's strong 1997 result when it won 54 seats, but lost power because of a collapse in support for its coalition partner, Labour. At 26%, the party is now six percentage points higher than its February 2005 level of support, when it was languishing at just 20%.

Satisfaction with party leader Enda Kenny also continues on an upward trajectory, rising by two points to 46% since last November, with dissatisfaction levels falling by five percentage points. However, the gap between the respective popularity ratings of Bertie Ahern and Kenny has widened slightly, with the taoiseach's approval rating rising to 54%.

Kenny, though, has overtaken Mary Harney, Pat Rabbitte and Gerry Adams to become the second most popular of the party leaders.

And those intending to vote for Fine Gael are clearly happy with the job that Kenny is doing . . . 81% of them expressing satisfaction with his performance and just 10% expressing dissatisfaction.

Fine Gael's vote has improved significantly in Dublin from its 2002 general election disaster, when the party won a miserable three seats in the capital. Fine Gael's support level has increased from 14.46% in that election to 22% today.

While that figure points to significant gains for the party in Dublin, its support in the capital still lags behind its national level and it remains the party's weakest region.

Overall, Fine Gael fares better in rural areas, with 28% support, than in urban areas (24%).

The party is strongest in Connacht/Ulster, where it attracts 30% support, hardly surprising given that leader Enda Kenny is based in Mayo. Fine Gael is also performing well in 'Rest of Leinster' . . . where it won two out of three seats in the European parliament elections in 2004 . . . with 27%.

As expected, the party's support level is strongest among farmers . . .

where it is actually ahead of Fianna Fail by 41% to 37% . . . and among voters in the ABC1 category. Worryingly for the party, it is not proving particularly appealing to women voters. Just 23% of women support Fine Gael, compared to 28% of men.

The party has particularly high levels of support among voters aged 18-24 (who traditionally are less likely to vote) and voters aged over 65 (who are more likely to vote).




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