The party now faces a real electoral conundrum. There has been no significant voter reaction to its changed strategy from 2002 when it contested on an independent platform. The current pre-election alliance with Fine Gael has boosted the larger party but, so far, has brought no opinion poll benefit for Labour. The party is marginally stronger in the 35-49 age group (14% support) but there is little variation in support levels by gender or social groups.

The one glimmer of good news for Pat Rabbitte's party is found in its performance in Dublin, where support levels are running at 15%. This compares with 10% in the rest of Leinster, 15% in Munster and 4% in Connacht/Ulster. But even that support level in Dublin would probably not deliver seat gains in target constituencies like Dublin South or Dublin Mid-West.

Labour failed to gain from the Fine Gael meltdown in 2002, and there have to be real concerns in the party that it could lose out this time from a revitalised Fine Gael. In addition, a stronger Sinn Fein is increasingly occupying the antiestablishment ground which should be part of Labour's natural support. After a decade in opposition, Labour does not need an election where it once again stands still.