and likely new PD leader and Tanaiste . . . has well judged the public mood on immigration.

A series of statements were put to the poll participants on immigration. They were asked about the number of non-nationals in the country, their contribution to the economy and their impact on traditional Irish culture and values. The poll findings are dramatic. They very much confirm what many politicians from all the main parties have been privately reporting for some time . . .

there is considerable public unease over the high level of immigration into Ireland in recent times.

According to the Sunday Tribune/Millward Brown IMS survey, 80% of respondents agree with the suggestion that the government should restrict the number of non-nationals allowed to come to Ireland.

Some 54% strongly agree with this position and 26% agree slightly. There is little middle ground. There are few who either slightly disagree (7%), strongly disagree (5%) or have no opinion on the matter (2%).

Some 60% of poll respondents believe that "traditional Irish culture and values" are being lost due to the increase in nonnationals living and working here. Thirtysix percent strongly agree with this assessment about the impact of recent immigration while 24% slightly agree. Only 25% of respondents disagree . . . 13% slightly and 12% strongly . . . that immigration is having this negative impact.

Many economists and businesses have argued that the contribution of non-national workers is necessary to sustain recent economic growth rates. Just over half of respondents (56%) in today's poll accept this argument. Almost 30% disagree with the proposition that non-national workers are necessary to keep the economy growing.

Initial figures from the 2006 census show that around 400,000 foreign nationals now live in Ireland. The non-national population is estimated at 10% of the overall population, a significant increase on the 6.8% level recorded in the previous census in 2002.

Immigration is not a cost-free exercise.

The arrival of non-nationals has left some people better off and others worse off.

Many economic studies show that, in the short term, immigration tends to depress average wage levels, but that the long-term effect is actually higher wages and growth rates.

The result of today's opinion poll may have a bearing on an important decision to be taken by the government in the next few weeks. People from several eastern European states, such as Poland, are entitled to come here to work as a right due to their citizenship of the European Union. The government will shortly have to decide what action to take about people from Bulgaria and Romania. The EU Commission is expected in the coming weeks to recommend that both countries join the EU on 1 January next. Bertie Ahern's government is considering restrictions on workers from both countries who wish to come here to work. The poll results show that restrictions on Bulgarians and Romanians would be a populist . . . and popular . . . decision. What is less obvious is whether it would be the correct decision.

There is an urgent national debate required over the implications of the demographic changes of the last decade. With the exception of Pat Rabbitte's concerns about possible labour-market displacement . . . which has been refuted by academic studies and business leaders . . . no other mainstream politician has sought to debate the immigration issue. There is, as yet, no Irish equivalent of the British National Party or the far-right in France. But what is now conveyed as public unease could quite easily be stoked to produce a nasty and ill-informed constituency to be exploited for political gain. There is a thin line between unease and racism.