James Nallen, Pat Harte, Ger Brady (who might sweep Seamus Moynihan to an early retirement), Alan Dillon and Ciaran McDonald would all only look 'good' for victories over their immediate opponents. David Heaney, Aiden Higgins, Ronan McGarrity and Conor Mortimer would be in with a chance of a half . . . though even if all of these impressive individual performances came to pass, that would still have Mayo losing 8-7.

No doubt about it, right up to this very morning, there appears to be a far greater richness of talent and character amongst the individuals entering the Kerry dressing-room.

Problem is, Kerry have been a sloppy, dysfunctional football team nearly all summer long. There were really only 35 minutes, and two more added on for injury time, when Kerry ever had that spark and that vital edge to their play since the championship commenced.

The rest of the time, outside of the manner in which they finished off Armagh, it's been hard bloody work on the field and no picnic on the sideline for Jack O'Connor either.

All work and no play has made the Kerry football team a dull boy. The 2006 version are lower in self-confidence than they should be.

That's one definite reason why this final is tilted quite significantly in Mayo's favour. Mayo honestly now believe this is their year. Sure, Mayo teams for the last 2000 years have usually erred in thinking too highly of themselves, but this time a confident Mayo team is coming up against an opponent who is, amazingly, not quite too sure of its collective worth.

Why Kerry have not marched on from O'Connor's fantastic first year in charge is quite puzzling. In 2004 he won everything.

Last year's All Ireland final defeat was traumatic, and by deciding to launch into a rebuilding programme in 2006, O'Connor never honestly expected to be where he is. Jack has neither an old team nor a young team. Too many elderly gentlemen, like Moynihan, are still in central positions on the field and too many young turks with promise are in the stand.

Moynihan is on his last legs and O'Connor has no Bryan Cullen-type in his squad. The midfield, like every Kerry midfield pair of the last decade, has been put together in a hurry, and up front too much is being asked of Kieran Donaghy.

The story of this Kerry team is encapsulated by Eoin Brosnan who, we're told, will not be starting and will be sitting with number 17 on his back. Brosnan's uncertainty, and nervousness almost, is shocking for Kerry football supporters but it's actually symptomatic of 'Early Retirementitis'. I came down with that myself at 28 and had my personal retirement plan enacted within 12 months. Brosnan scored four goals in this very championship, and yet he's never looked happy. But just how much happier can Declan O'Sullivan really be as he prepares to captain the team after an in-andout year?

It just does not look right for Kerry. And where are the kids? Darren O'Sullivan and Bryan Sheehan will also be sitting in the stand and when you look down from number 17, right through the Kerry substitute list, you don't really stop to size up any one name until you arrive at number 29 . . . the jersey which houses the loyal and always handy Aodan Mac Gearailt. Compare the two sets of substitutes and Mayo, amazingly, have James Gill, the Morans and the O'Malleys, Trevor Mortimer and, naturally, David Brady. Substitutes don't win many games, and neither do managers, but did you notice just how relaxed and comfortable within himself Mickey Moran was when he did the 'Two Managers Thing' with Jack O'Connor at the press conference in the middle of the week? If Mayo can match the calmness and confidence of their manager, they could be home and dry. But that's the biggest question of all, isn't it? The question which everyone throughout the country who dearly wants Mayo to win the big one for the first time in 54 years is afraid of asking: Will they stop in their tracks and freeze over?

Heck if I know.

By now, all of the other self-respecting Sunday football analysts will have pretty much finished blathering on about 'If Mayo do this' and 'If Kerry do that' and so forth, and so forth, blah, blah, blahf But on the piece of newspaper space I rent out from the Tribune (and pay a fortune for), I don't do that 'Honours Maths for A students bolloxology'. I'm not going to bother blowing smoke up the ass of GAA fans like most of my dear friends in the other publications. High-tech, computer-generated team tactics have never won an All Ireland title, not even in the modern game. But high balls into the square have, and will do so again. Kerry, as the world knows, have a highball tactic under their wing, and Mayo do not.

Kieran Donaghy has been a revelation, and without him (and the Mayo-Dublin semi-final) this summer would have been a complete wash out. The country owes the young full-forward, even before a ball is kicked in this All Ireland final. The whole country, and not just Jack, feels proud of him. And that says it all.

But the whole country is also ready to turn its back on him in the hours ahead. This is Mayo's day . . . if they play. If Ronan McGarritty wins his share, or gains a little bit more, of the ball in the middle of the field; if Nallen stays at home in defence and lets Aiden Higgins and Peader Gardiner launch themselves into attack; and if Ciaran McDonald stays out of the way (and minds his own business) for long spells. In the semi-final, McDonald played it quietly enough (outside of his two majestic points) and he also played it beautifully. Everyone in Mayo, including Ciaran, realised after all these years that one man performances never win an All Ireland title. McDonald only needs to score the two or three points which really matter this afternoon, and for the rest of the game he needs to win the ball and lay it off as quickly as possible. 'Glory, Glory, Hallelujah' displays have killed enough Mayo dreams in the past and, with a bit of luck, McDonald will remember to serve Mayo first and his own inflated reputation second.

Starting Kevin O'Neill on the inside line might actually be the decision which clinches this Mayo victory. More than the thundering appearances of David Brady, O'Neill's touches and tidy displays of genius really dovetail perfectly with McDonald's more subdued role in recent weeks. If there is a sense of destiny . . . dangerous word, I know . . . about this Mayo team then it illustrates itself convincingly through the dramatic, last-gasp return of Kevin O'Neill. You just feel things are going to go right for him in the new time he has won, and the little time he has left, as a Mayo footballer.

It's going to be absorbing and close for long spells, but only if Kerry really get stuck into this game and pull everything together in one allround, gutsy, honest team performance. Could happen. If it doesn't, Mayo might win this All Ireland title with a most stylish and deserving three or four point victory.

Yeah, Mayo. All Ireland champions. Believe it.

lhayes@tribune. ie

COYLE SPRINGS FORTH . . . ON A TIMER
The ruthlessness which marked Eamonn Barry's dismissal as Meath football boss after one quick season has also delivered a clear message to his successor Colm Coyle. If he survives his own first year in the job then Coyler might have to run up to the top table, empty bowl in his hands, and ask for 'More, please?' The man who was going to step into Sean Boylan's shoes was always going to need all the time in the world. Barry needed three to five years, and Coyle will need the same.

Is Barry deserving of sympathy?

Remember, if Boylan had received a three-year contract when he started out in 1982 he would have had nothing to show for his time. Barry, however, played the big, bad, boss in his own dressing-room and ruthlessness was one of his characteristics with his young squad. He lived by the sword, sof Was Eamonn any good as Boylan's short-lived successor? Will he ever again get the chance to display his full range of talents as a football boss on the biggest stage of all? He's certainly not going to disappear in Meath. He'll definitely be back, or try to get back in.

But the tragedy for Eamonn Barry is that Colm Coyle is the most able and fearless team manager Meath could possibly have, and everyone, me included, wanted him to have this job sooner rather than later. Barry was all drama and distractions. Coyle, instead, will be wholly focussed in doing the job in a quiet, private manner.

Personally, even though I don't care for his managerial techniques . . . and fits and piques . . . I always applauded Barry for having the courage to seek out the job. As a result, he should have been allowed the time to make a proper fist of the position. With Sean Boylan's long and delayed exit, it was always a great danger that Meath would enter a cycle of decapitating his successors but a box full of heads outside the Meath dressing-room must be avoided.

It was wrong that Barry's head was tossed into that box but, equally, the day that Coyle became manager was always going to be a good and heartening day for the Meath football supporters. That's the state the county now finds itself in this week . . . bloodied, but happier.