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THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE
Kieran Shannon



AS Kerry warmed up before facing Armagh last month, Seamus Moynihan spelt out to his teammates what was at stake.

That game was about something more elemental reaching an All Ireland final. "They're f***in' questioning our manhood!" he shouted.

Whatever happens today, no such aspersions should hang over this Kerry side again. Likewise Mayo after they took over the Hill and took on Dublin. For Kerry to be back here after the players they've lost this past two years . . . Crowley, O Cinneide, Kirby, Hassett; for Mayo to be here after the games they've lost since even then . . . Kerry '04 and '05, Armagh and Galway '05 . . . is a testament to their powers of reinvention, resilience, and well, manhood.

Others this year could endure only so much.

In February Dublin took over Omagh in as pointed a manner as Mayo took over Croke Park. Tyrone were on the back foot for the year and eventually stumbled over (clutching a leg). This summer has had some seismic moments . . . the Donaghy experiment, Mayo's display of will to the Hill . . . but just as pivotal in the destiny of Sam was Brian McGuigan collapsing in a quiet field in Tyrone and Stephen O'Neill hobbling off another. After that, it was only a question of when and where Tyrone would be beaten, even if they should have ensured the where was Croke Park.

If O'Neill and McGuigan get back to their form of this day last year, then Tyrone will be playing this day next year. The Big Three is no more though. Armagh's quarter-final defeat was reminiscent of Galway's in '02 and '03, the last tilt of a great but declining team.

Cork made progress this year but they won't make any more until they stop deluding themselves. After the semi-final, selector John Corcoran proclaimed Cork "weren't cynical enough". They're just not clinical enough and need another two forwards because as much as he lit up this summer, James Masters is a Mike Frank Russell, not a Gooch; a Derek Savage but not a Joyce.

Dublin, contrary to myth, have both in Keaney and Brogan, but there are certain rites of passage a team must share to play in September. One is to lose a game like Dublin lost this August. Another is to win close, away games in the league, something Dublin . . . Omagh apart . . . haven't been doing. For Dublin and Cork to get back to contesting All Ireland finals, first they must get back to making league semifinals and finals.

Kerry and Mayo have no such problem. Neither, as mentioned, can their "manhood" be questioned. What can though is each manager's starting line-up.

Eoin Brosnan's demotion is startling. Since being reinstated at centre-forward, he's scored four goals, contained Ger Spillane, and probably been Kerry's best player in training, kicking four points off Tommy Griffin in an A versus B game last week. Declan O'Sullivan has a terrific record against Mayo, and is a better foot passer than Brosnan.

But with Mayo unlikely to reassign James Nallen to him and with Donaghy inside, O'Sullivan must revert to the catch and kick mode of '03 rather than the ball-carrying one of '05.

Brosnan's introduction transformed the league final but as of now Kerry are depriving themselves of a probable first-half goal. If Jack O'Connor's favourite son isn't bringing the cup back to Dromid, then Jack will have to put up with a winter of discontent worse than Paidi's of '02.

Mickey Moran is right to start Kevin O'Neill, but we'd have started David Brady too. Mickey Harte has said he would use the Peter Canavan substitution strategy in the case of O'Neill, but we would argue it would make even more sense to deploy it in the case of Brady, with Pat Harte moving to the wing and Billy Joe Padden coming off. Mayo might have merely looked at how they have been winning games, instead of studying how Kerry lose them.

To beat Kerry, you must restrict Darragh O Se. Mayo believe they have the man to do that in Ronan McGarrity but history suggests it is the spoiler and enforcer, not the ball player; the Hughes, not the Cavanagh; the Brady, not the McGarrity. Liam McHale rightly pointed out on Park Live that McGarrity is now better able to take the ball into contact, but he has to get the ball first. Will he be able to take the contact that goes with that? Brady can . . . and dish it out too. That he isn't starting raises concerns about how Mayo are geared to play. Yes, they must perform . . . something they didn't do in '97 and '04 . . . but that isn't enough. They performed and lost in '89, '96 and in last year's quarter-final. Mayo in a shootout can out-gun most counties but not Kerry.

Right. What Mayo must do to win. Ciaran McDonald to kick three points from play.

Score at least one goal. Play a sweeper . . .

Nallen? . . . in front of Donaghy, something that worked for Armagh until Kieran McGeeney ran out of steam. No more Barry Moran or Barry O'Regan substitutions. Throw something, someone, from the bench Kerry aren't expecting, like Austin O'Malley . . . Man of the Match when the sides met last year.

Mayo could very well win. Two years ago they never envisaged being eight down at halftime; after Dublin, now they feel they can comeback from anything. They've won more tight games than Kerry this year. They've already beaten Kerry this year. Kerry '06 smacks so much of Kerry '02 . . . reinvented after losing to Cork through a phenomenal rookie forward, the resurgent O Ses and Sean O'Sullivan . . . and Kerry lost that All Ireland of '02 to a side with an identical profile to Mayo's.

And if it's close, Brian Crowe could be swayed by the roars and premature whistlers, as Dickie Murphy was in '95.

But ultimately, sadly, Kerry should win.

We know it seems Mayo's "time", but Waterford had that vibe about them last month too. It might be Nallen and Brady's last day but it is definitely Jack's and Moynihan's. The Kerry backs were their old solid selves in the semi-final. None of them are an obvious weak link; Dermot Geraghty possibly is. Neither keeper is what he was last year but David Clarke has been particularly suspect in the last two games. Gooch is due a big game and plays well against Mayo. By the time Brady comes on, Darragh will be into his stride.

Above all, Kerry score more goals. If they score one more than Mayo, are Mayo really going to out-point Kerry by at least four? Mayo had their one awesome shooting day for the season.

We won't get what we got in '04 but we might get what we expected in '04.

Kerry by two.

kshannon@tribune. ie

ALL IRELAND SFC FINAL
Kerry v Mayo
Croke Park, 3.30
Referee Brian Crowe (Cavan) Live, RTE Two, 12.30
PATHS TO THE FINAL
KERRY
MUNSTER FIRST ROUND: 21 May, Killarney beat Waterford, 0-16 to 0-8
MUNSTER SEMIFINAL: 11 June, Killarney beat Tipperary, 0-17 to 1-5
MUNSTER FINAL 9 July, Killarney drew with Cork, 0-10 to 0-10
MUNSTER FINAL REPLAY: 16 July, Pairc Ui Chaoimh lost to Cork, 0-9 to 1-12
ALL IRELAND QUALIFIER: 29 July, Killarney beat Longford, 4-11 to 1-11
ALL IRELAND QUARTER-FINAL: 5 August, Croke Park beat Armagh, 3-15 to 1-13
ALL IRELAND SEMIFINAL: 20 August, Croke Park beat Cork, 0-16 to 0-10
MAYO
CONNACHT PRELIMINARY ROUND: 28 May, Ruislip beat London, 118 to 0-8
CONNACHT SEMIFINAL: 25 June, Carrick-on-Shannnon beat Leitrim, 1-10 to 1-9
CONNACHT FINAL: 16 July, Castlebar beat Galway, 0-12 to 1-8
ALL IRELAND QUARTER-FINAL: 13 August, Croke Park drew with Laois, 0-15 to 0-15
ALL IRELAND QUARTER-FINAL REPLAY: 20 August, Croke Park beat Laois, 0-14 to 0-11
ALL IRELAND SEMIFINAL: 27 August, Croke Park beat Dublin, 1-16 to 2-12




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