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Forget the economy and the peace process . . . most Irish people are deeply uneasy about the USA
Kevin Rafter Political Editor



IRELAND doesn't like George W Bush, and an overwhelming majority of Irish people believe his administration in Washington has made the world a more dangerous place.

Those are the findings from the latest Sunday Tribune/Millward Brown IMS opinion poll and, in many ways, it's not hard to see why Irish people would judge Bush harshly. His time in office has been marked by international strife, what with war in Iraq, conflicts in the Middle East and in Afghanistan, higher oil prices and Al Gore's new documentary highlighting a callous disregard for the environment among those who walk the corridors of the White House.

What will surprise many, however, is the sheer scale of the Irish public's negativity towards President Bush. Four in every five respondents to the Sunday Tribune poll believe that, taking everything into account, the world is now a more dangerous place due to the policies and actions of the Bush administration. Only 6% believe the Bush presidency has made the world a safer place while 8% said the world is no safer or more dangerous than before.

The critical sentiment towards the current US government is replicated when people are asked for their view of how George W Bush is performing as a world leader. Just over 70% of respondents believe that Bush is doing a "poor job" as a world leader. Only 20% think he's doing a "average job" while a tiny 5% give him positive feedback for doing a "good job".

The US has long been a good place for Ireland and Irish people. It was the land chosen as a new home by hundreds of thousands forced to emigrate from these shores in search of jobs and opportunity.

It is difficult to comprehend how Ireland would have coped in the bleak 1950s and the depressed 1980s if the United States had not been a rescue option.

In more recent times, the United States has played a key role in the peace process in Northern Ireland. The Clinton administration did more than elevate St Patrick's Day to a right olde party in Washington.

Bill Clinton was engaged with the peace process. He lent George Mitchell as chairman of the talks which led to the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. Who's to say how those negotiations would have progressed without the patience displayed by Mitchell? Clinton went against the advice of key advisers and officials in granting Gerry Adams a temporary visa to visit the US in the early part of 1994, and in the weeks prior to the IRA's ceasefire in August of that year he approved a visa for the late Joe Cahill. The Bush administration . . . while obviously preoccupied with bigger foreign-policy issues . . . has remained a friend of the peace process.

And then there's the investment of US multinationals in the Irish economy. The Dells and Intels have created thousands of jobs, directly and indirectly, as well as injecting millions of euro into the economy here. In a speech to the American Chamber of Commerce last week, Bertie Ahern set out the depth of the economic relationship. "Today, there are some 600 American companies operating in Ireland, directly employing over 100,000 people, and contributing some 2.5bn in corporation tax in 2005 alone. US investment in Ireland now amounts to some $73bn. US firms export an estimated 55bn of products and services from Ireland to world markets. The US also remains Ireland's top export destination, with total bilateral trade of 23.5bn.

Exports to the US accounted for 10% of Ireland's GDP in 2005." And, as the Taoiseach also explained: "It is not all one-way traffic." Over 300 Irish companies have invested over $20bn across 35 American states and give employment to over 50,000 people.

But economics, history and the peace process are not enough for many Irish people in determining their attitude to the current man in the White House. The public have looked at the bigger picture and they obviously do not like what they see. The Iraqi adventure has badly backfired, the situation in the Middle East is more precarious than ever and environmental safety is threatened by a disregard for global responsibility in reducing greenhouse gases and averting permanently damaging climate change.

The danger for Irish-American relations is the lasting harm to Irish perceptions of the United States arising from Bush's tenure in office. Only time will tell how much of the negativity lingers after he has left the White House at the end of his second term. When reporting back the results of today's poll, officials at the American Embassy in Dublin will be feeding into a general air of gloom engulfing the White House.

Bush has achieved some of the lowest approval ratings of any US president in American polling history. For some time, he has been looking at very poor domestic approval ratings. Even his own Republican base has deserted him, with a recent survey showing that a 68% approval among heartland Republican voters compared to 91% back in 2004.

Last month a CBS/New York Times poll found that 60% of Americans thought their president was not respected by foreign leaders. The poll, which was taken during the conflict in the Middle East, reported that 47% of Americans approved of Bush's handling of the crisis while 27% disapproved.

The signs of discontent continue to grow. In the last week, former US secretary of state Colin Powell wrote to Republican party senators warning that the moral basis for the US's war on terrorism could be undermined by Bush's desire to redefine Geneva Convention rules on interrogating prisoners.

It is unlikely that President Bush will be reading today's Sunday Tribune, but the damage his policies are doing to world safety and the global environment is hard to ignore, as today's opinion poll clearly indicates.




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