PEOPLEwho decided to put their homes up for sale last week will have got quite a shock when they saw the latest property supplements.
Auctioneers estimate that the number of second-hand houses on the market is up by 25% on this time last year and have warned sellers that they should keep their prices what they euphemistically call "realistic" . . . in other words, contain their greed.
For some sellers, that advice sounds a bit rich. There is a lot of anecdotal evidence to support IIB chief economist Austin Hughes' claim that certain agents have been "juicing up" prices and pumping up buyers' already overblown expectations, many of which were not met over the summer, hence the large number of withdrawals.
Those that didn't sell join the glut that went on sale last week as the market opened again. The first auction results will start trickling in next week, and after that, the deluge. A lot of withdrawals are likely and those people who priced their houses above the already record level set for their street earlier in the year, when the Dublin market was at boiling point, will, as Austin Hughes puts it, get a "rude awakening".
The rush to sell by what seems like half of Dublin is a sure sign that home-owners themselves believe prices have peaked and want to cash in their equity before the market slows.
Auctions are "a Dublin thing", accounting for about 10% of sales. They are followed with relish by buyers in the capital and are seen as a key indicator of confidence . . . without doubt one of the most important struts underpinning the entire property market.
Earlier in the year, that confidence was to be seen at every viewing, in every auction room and among the sales staff processing the queues at the launches of new developments. The result was that house prices, particularly in Dublin, rose twice as quickly as even the most optimistic predictions at the start of the year.
The ESRI Permanent TSB house price index shows current house price inflation at an annual 15.5%. Back in January, they reckoned it would steady at 8%. Estate agents calculate their figures differently. The Sherry FitzGerald group, for example, reckons Dublin prices went up by 21.2% in the first six months of the year.
A recent OECD report showed that Dublin real estate is now more expensive per square metre than property in London, Zurich or Paris, a fact remarked on even by financier Dermot Desmond, owner of a very swish home on Merrion Square. Even he feels prices need to "settle out in time".
Certainly, a lot of people are getting nervous. The property market has a few storms to weather. Interest rates will definitely be up at 3.7% by next March. Inflation . . . and particularly energy inflation . . . is beginning to eat into people's disposable income.
The "easy money" vigorously advertised by the banks all year in the guise of 100% loans and mortgage terms stretching from 25 to 30 and 40 years also seems to have been a one-off price boost that has worked its way through the system.
With so many houses on the market, it is rapidly turning into a buyer's market compared to the selling frenzy of the early part of the year. At the same time, with 87,000 people settling here a year and most of them in the key 25-35 house-buying age group, demand for both first-time buyer homes and rental apartments is still very strong.
Those immigration levels and the strength of employment and the economy in general should guide the property market to an orderly slowdown. But the trouble for sellers is that when prices have all but trebled in a decade, a slowdown feels like a fall.
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