EXPECTATIONS for a strong start to the auction season were hit by a wave of realism last week as sales results revealed that only 15% of houses were sold under the hammer. Following on from poor results at the end of last season, when sales at auction were around 37%, the latest figures point to change in sentiment among buyers, and suggest that many are now adopting a wait-and-see approach.
According to results published earlier in the week, only seven out of 49 houses were sold at auction, while 34 houses were withdrawn. Of these, five houses were sold after auction and one is currently under negotiation. Interestingly, two houses were sold prior to auction.
While agents agree that there has been a mixed bag of results and present several reasons for this, the figures will make sobering reading as they show that 85% of vendors were disappointed at auction last week. And with the Ryder Cup competing for attention over the last few days, viewings and interest in auctions next week is also likely to be affected.
One of the chief reasons given for the large number of withdrawals is the increase in supply, which most agents put at around 20% up on last year.
As a result, given that there are only a small number of buyers at auction, increased withdrawals are inevitable, agents claim.
Above all, agents discount the theory that the increase in supply is in any indication of panic-selling by vendors looking to get out before prices peak.
"Exceptionally strong sales at the start of the year probably encouraged many of those who were thinking of selling back in May and June to do so now. As a result, many people decided to get in early at the start of this season, creating the current over-supply, explains Simon Ensor, Sherry FitzGerald. Ensor also believes that there are an increasing number of houses at auction that would probably sell better by private treaty and that the high number of withdrawals is in part confirmation of this.
"Houses that should sell at auction are typically those that will create competitive interest. Generally they are welllocated period houses that are either in need of refurbishment or are in excellent condition with a good family garden. Unique or one-off houses also generally sell well at auction."
While this is a compelling argument for the large number of withdrawals at auction and is made by several agents, it still doesn't explain why out of 10 period properties in highly sought after Mountpleasant Avenue and Mountpleasant Square in Dublin 6, only two have sold.
These highly auctionable properties are not an exception. Last week, several highend properties in much sought-after locations failed to sell at auction. Lucca House, a five-bed on Ailesbury Road, Ballsbridge is now for sale by private treaty guiding 4.4m.
Also in Ballsbridge, No 37 Wellington Place, a five. . . bed in need of refurbishment, is back on the market guiding at 3.5m.
In Ranelagh, No 20 Ashfield Road, a four-bed, is now for sale by private treaty with an asking price of 1.6m.
All typically auctionable properties in good locations, these withdrawals at auction suggest more than oversupply, the Ryder Cup or buyer hesitation is at play. Significantly, these properties are now for sale by private treaty at the same asking price as the AMV, even though conventional wisdom would suggest that the asking price at private treaty would be 5%10% higher than the AMV.
"There's no doubt about it, there is certainly an increase in supply compared to the start of the year, " said Paul Murgatroyd, economist with Douglas Newman Good. But while figures suggest a change in the market, with buyers now in a position to hold back, Murgatroyd believes that this hasn't affected buyer confidence in any way. Rather, it is vendors who will have to realign there expectations.
"Of 11 auctions this week, we sold five at auction or prior to auction and of the remaining six, three are under negotiation, " said Murgatroyd.
"Buyers are more relaxed now, there is no longer excess demand chasing limited supply. Prices haven't peaked yet, but they're getting close to it.
As a result, vendors will have to be more realistic on price."
Agent Felicity Fox also believes that vendors at the top end of the market will have to become more realistic. "If the price is right, there are buyers and there are certainly plenty of buyers out there. If a house is on at a realistic value, it will go exceptionally well, but if it's 5%-10% too high, interest will be slower and the house may not do well at auction."
Poor results for vendors however, mean good news for buyers and the market in general, according to Tara Cosgrove of Property Locators.
"It's too early to make any farreaching conclusions, but it does suggest the tide is turning, " she said. "The number of sales prior to auction is a very interesting sign. I think we will continue to see more deals done before auction, particularly if vendors are nervous and there are only one or two really interested buyers."
Cosgrove also believes that we will start to see sale prices much closer to the AMV, whether they are sold at auction or after withdrawal, which is more good news for buyers.
Another factor having an impact on the market is interest rates, according to Marion Finnegan, chief economist with Sherry Fitzgerald. "Interest rates are only now starting to impact on buyer confidence at the high end of the market, which confounded predictions with record-breaking results in the first six months of the year.
"But we are in a different market now, the rising interest rates has led to a change in consumer confidence. In particular, the interest rate rise in August took many people by surprise and is probably only now starting to affect confidence at the higher end of the market."
Finnegan adds that the high level of stock now will also have the effect of slowing the pace of growth and bring realism back to the market.
|