SHARES in Aer Lingus, expected to be valued at 2.35 2.40 when the price is announced on Tuesday, may be dragged down in the early days of trading by a rapid exodus by private investors.
Stockbrokers report strong interest from private clients but most are believed to be stagging the shares - speculating on quick profits by dumping them as soon as trading begins on the stock exchange a week from tomorrow.
One stockbroker, who requested anonymity, estimated that stags account for as much as 60% of his clients who applied for shares in the national airline by last Thursday's deadline.
"Stagging could certainly depress the price in the short term, especially if everybody has the same idea, " he said.
"The sponsoring brokers will only be able to hold up the price for so long. We've been marking clients' cards about this. They may make a nice turn but it all depends on where the price is set. Stagging won't be such an issue if they [the Government] get the price right because that would mean there will be other buyers for the stock."
He said there would be "limited downside" if the shares are priced at the lower end of the indicative price range of 2.10- 2.70 a share.
This weekend sources close to the airline suggested a price of 2.35- 2.40, right at the mid point of the range. The fear in investor circles is that a recent rally in airline stocks, prompted by a softening in oil prices, will boost the issue price of Aer Lingus shares.
Another financial adviser said the airline would be relying on institutional investors to steady the share price.
"Everybody who's talking about buying the shares is talking about flipping them, " he said.
"But the institutions will mop them up. The shares might be weak for a few days but they will rebound."
Michael Halpenny, national industrial secretary at Siptu, said the shares were priced on the cheap for the benefit of speculators.
"The share price is being effectively discounted so that those with lots of money can get in on the cheap, " he said.
"I suspect all the interest we're seeing in Aer Lingus shares has nothing to do with the joys of aviation or supporting the shamrock. It's about getting a bargain and making a quick gain."
To get shares at the issue price, investors had to make a minimum application of 10,000 by last Thursday's deadline. If they hold the shares for 12 months, they will be entitled to a bonus issue of one share for every 20 held.
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