What's different, this time, is the confluence of a few factors which haven't coincided before. One of those factors is the reiteration by the Irish Times that the figures the Taoiseach rubbished in their first report are accurate. Another is the echo, in the Taoiseach's refusal to answer questions, of the "line in the sand" Ray Burke talked about before his meltdown. A third is the frequently-quoted Ahern statement that being compromised by financial donations, even if those donations related to one's private life, just wasn't acceptable for a member of government.

Adding all of these together led some Fianna Fail backbenchers this weekend to predict that the Taoiseach will call a snap election, on the basis that the tribunal controversy would disappear in the maelstrom of issues an election throws up. Front-benchers regard this as ludicrous. John O'Donoghue, from the K Club on Friday evening, pointed out that the public likes Ahern and is tired of repetitive media predictions of his imminent demise.

O'Donoghue's right, to a degree.

Although the money for the legal separation of the Taoiseach and Miriam Ahern was what media talked about all weekend, it was not the major topic for those outside media. Partly because all of the tribunals are like a TV series that's run too long. The public remembers the great early episodes, but have largely lost track of what's going on now.

It's very different for media. Especially for those in media who publicly predicted Ahern's comeuppance in the past and got facially egged when it didn't happen. Media have got hooked on a number of mantras.

There's the 'public domain' mantra:

never mind that all witnesses before the tribunal were warned by the tribunal to keep their lips zipped about information divulged there in confidence; now the allegations are in the public domain, Bertie has to answer them. This is spurious. He doesn't. This is where push comes to shove: he thinks he's being railroaded by sinister secret enemies, whereas media believes he has a duty to deal with accusations which undercut his personal and political credibility. Media further holds that this won't go away.

In fact, it could go away. If Bertie Ahern stays schtum, it will be difficult to keep the story on the front pages. In addition, while the opposition parties will undoubtedly make hay with it at the reopening of the Dail, neither Pat Rabbitte nor Enda Kenny are in unambiguously strong positions on the donations issue (although Kenny may feel that Michael Lowry belongs to an era of FG not connected with him), and neither will be comfortable ploughing around in the private debris of Ahern's marriage.

The wild card is Michael McDowell. If the Tanaiste feels the instruction of the tribunal not to discuss evidence given outweighs the 'public domain' argument, then the Taoiseach will live to fight another day. If he doesn't, then the Taoiseach will either change his mind and talk, or find himself leading his party into a sudden election in the worst possible circumstances.