CAROLINE BYRNE, a 2006 Leaving Cert student from Holy Child in Killiney, attended a busy Dublin Business School open evening last Tuesday. Her first choice was a social science degree in Trinity but the points were too high, she said. The social science course in DBS was the next best option. "It's a new course and it's supposed to be good."
Jonathan Quinlan, another Dublin student, attending the evening, applied for a film and television course at the Institute of Art, Design and Technology but "didn't get enough points". Like Byrne, his back-up choice was a similar course offered by DBS.
Going private has been a traditional fall-back for Irish students who failed to secure a place in a statefunded university or institute of technology. This year, however, only 51,000 students sat the Leaving, the lowest total in two decades. With fewer students finding themselves in the same situation as Quinlan and Byrne, Ireland's booming private college industry has been figuring out ways to keep the cash rolling in.
It's big business. The combined turnover of the seven member institutions of the Higher Education Colleges Association (HECA) is expected to be around 60m this year, according to Diarmuid Hegarty, founder and director of Griffith College in Dublin and current HECA chairman. Including private colleges that are not HECA members, Hegarty said "you're probably talking in terms of 100m".
Gerry Muldowney, director of DBS, believes the apparent end of the long-maligned "points race" will force third-level institutions to compete harder to attract the dwindling pool of schoolleavers. This will mean offering new courses and greater choice, and becoming more marketfocused, he said. In short: treating students more like customers.
With customer numbers dwindling at home, the push is also on to recruit overseas students. One of HECA's other members is educational behemoth Portobello College, in Dublin. Around 400 of Portobello's 1,000 students are non-Irish. Most hail from China, supplemented by students from Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, among many other nationalities.
Portobello director Frances Baker said last week that private colleges are well prepared for falling Leaving Cert numbers as the numbers sitting the exam have been in decline for a number of years.
"We're not exceptionally worried this year, " she said.
Baker said Portobello has been busy opening up new markets to ensure a steady stream of fresh applicants, regardless of the situation in Ireland. She refused to give specifics, however. "I'd prefer not to say at the moment, " she said. "We don't give away our secrets."
Griffith College's Hegarty also relies heavily on overseas students to fill the 6,000 places it has on offer, and Hegarty said he is not bothered by the fall-off in Leaving Cert numbers.
"This is a short-term blip, " he said.
Hegarty believes immigration will underpin the next wave of growth in private education in Ireland, and that Ireland may again be facing a shortage of places in a decade's time.
"In the ten years from 1995 to 2005, Ireland has reversed its emigration and the population decline of the previous 100 years, " he said.
"That means more demand for school places and more part-time education."
The evidence suggests the private colleges believe their positive stories.
Portobello College was founded by Ray Kearns, who started his private education business by founding Dublin's famous grind school, the Institute of Education. The empire is now run by his son Andrew, and while both Portobello and the Institute of Education are unlimited, it is clear that education has proved a lucrative endeavour for the Kearns family.
It has been estimated that the institute brings in up to 9m a year in revenue from its part-time grind courses and its 750 full-time students. With courses in Portobello starting at around 4,000, the 1,000 students on its campus doubtless contribute several million more to the company's coffers each year.
Ray Kearns has built a valuable property portfolio on the back of the education business. He owns several buildings at Richmond Street, the south Dublin thoroughfare that is home to Portobello College. He has submitted planning permission in relation to one of those buildings, which he envisages as a 10m extension to the college with a new library, cafeteria and space to accommodate several hundred extra students.
Kearns clearly believes private education is still a growth business in Ireland, and he is not alone. Griffith College recently paid 250,000 to acquire a small college in Limerick to add to the purchase of Skerries College in Cork last year. To date, the company has spent 46m on its Dublin campus and a neighbouring student accommodation building, Hegarty said.
Accounts filed for GCD's operating company, Bellerophon, do not disclose turnover but detail a gross profit figure of 8.6m for the 2005 financial year, on which the company made a pre-tax profit of 1.1m. The company had shareholders funds of 13.7m at that date.
If Hegarty's prediction of an increasing inflow of students continues, he forecasts that a new points race may even begin. "I would think we're probably talking in terms of a shortage of places in about 10 years, " he said.
Portobello's Baker is of a similar mind. "If we can all survive the dip we'll be fine, " she said.
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