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Dubai's formula for economic miracles
David Horgan



Dubai: 5-9 August WEare increasingly using Dubai as our Middle Eastern base. Aer Lingus runs direct flights from Dublin: these normally work well but there is no back-up when there's a problem. One businessman got stranded for 22 hours soon after the service started, before making his way home via Heathrow.

Investor sentiment is unsettled after a strong boom, but the reason seems rising interest rates and strained valuations rather than geopolitics.

The region has always been unstable, and the UAE is better-run and safer than neighbouring countries.

The Dubai stock exchange is off to a shaky start: since March there has been a 70% correction but trading volumes have dried up, suggesting the correction is overdone.

There are hundreds of billions available in the Gulf. Oil is the key driver, but there is also fast population and income growth. Race-goers are familiar with the United Arab Emirates through the participation of the Maktoum brothers . . .

such big players in Irish bloodstock that they should Gaelicise their name to 'Mac'. Fewer know what an economic miracle is the Emirates. The skyline is a forest of cranes, which are maybe the national bird.

The property market is turbocharged but the Emirates are diversifying into finance and international services.

Dubai is a port with some oil and much desert. There is little crime or fundamentalism, full employment and a strong currency. Just three hours' drive from Saudi puritans there's alcohol and even a redlight district aptly named 'Psycho'. Neither modest scarves nor 'cheeky girl' skirts raise many eyebrows.

The formula is a benign dictatorship and immigrants from 72 countries, constituting 85% of the population. Ethnic food is second to none! Only the law-abiding prepared to work can enter. You must undergo an Aids test. People are free as long as they don't interfere with others. Punishment is severe if they do. Government is run like a business, with Sheikh Muhammad the CEO.

Hysteria: 10 August We were due to fly to Tehran via Heathrow. I awoke to a call to switch on Sky News. It quickly became clear that Heathrow was impractical. We were being treated to another exercise in mass hysteria. If there was a major security alert it seemed not to concern Dublin or Amsterdam airports, though one person was discreetly taken off our Aer Lingus flight at Dublin.

A few calls confirmed that we could fly via Amsterdam. I asked the security staff at both airports whether they were affected. Neither was aware of any heightened threat.

If there really was a plot, it worked: chaos reigned in British airports. As Mick O'Leary pointed out, Jihadists would be delighted with the wild over-reaction. It's no longer necessary to smuggle contraband . . . all you need do is scribble warnings on sick bags!

We travel more than most and are as interested in safety as anyone. But this exercise smelt wrong. Politicians and London coppers were taking us for an expensive ride.

It's not surprising that Britain and the US are jittery.

Alerts and actual attacks are a predictable reaction to Anglo-American foreign policy . . . what the CIA calls "blowback". But the timing and choreography of the exercise look politically motivated.

It seems that the extreme measures produced no results:

there were arrests but they apparently arose from standard investigation. No imminent or serious threat has been demonstrated.

Roosevelt was a true leader when he told people . . . who really were threatened by depression and totalitarianism . . . that 'we have nothing to fear but fear itself '. But security is the new excuse. We are expected to suspend disbelief.

Iran: 11-16 August Mick O'Leary was good on BBC, which you can watch freely in Iran. You cannot stay at high alert for extended periods. If you try, you end up with gridlocked systems vulnerable to breakdown.

Roads really are dangerous in Iran. Drivers take outrageous risks, apparently trusting in fate and their own undoubted skills. They have realistic cardboard cut-outs of traffic cops and squad cars . . . you brake hard and are nearly parallel with them before you realise they're Potemkin.

Effectively, financial sanctions are already on Iran: letters of credit and banking lines have dried up. But money, including official money, has been deployed to the UAE, where it will buy spare parts.

As before, Iran will learn from the experience of Iraq, by switching funds offshore.

Iranian people do not seem too concerned about geopolitics. People care about the suffering of Lebanese civilians, but not in the passionate way you witness in Arab countries.

The Arabs are religiously observant and politically engaged in compliant states.

The Iranians are generally neither, though living in an Islamic republic. Some complain that their tax money is spent on foreign projects. They perceive that Hezbollah won in Lebanon just by surviving. I am reminded of Ireland's 'moral victories' in soccer. God spare the civilians of all sides from more such victories!

Iranians have a clear view of Ireland as a separate country.

People repeatedly asked us to confirm that we were Irish and our companies Irish-controlled. One ministry official praised our leader. "Ah, Bertie, a reasonable man, " I responded. "No, I mean your other leader . . . that tall man with the beard who looks like a prophet . . . Gerryf Adams!"

They were delighted to hear that TG4 had apparently approved a budget for a documentary on Irish business people in Iran. The former Iranian ambassador told us that Farsi has 5,000 common words with Gaelic and the equivalents of many Irish phrases.

Why do many westerners hate these hospitable people?




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