The Daily Express last week wrote that 450,000 Romanians and 170,000 Bulgarians are planning to "invade" Britain when the two countries join the EU. This is on top of the 600,000 people that had come to the UK from the new accession states since 1 May, 2004, it said. Although British ministers have said that these workers were necessary to fill the gaps in the country's workforce, the Express pointed out that some five million people are receiving unemployment, sickness and other benefits.

What is the situation with Romania and Bulgaria and their accession to the EU?

The two countries are due to join the EU on 1 January next, but it is not a foregone conclusion, as both still have to fulfil certain criteria laid down by the European Commission. A monitoring report from the commission is due to be completed on 26 September and the commission will make a recommendation based on that. The recommendation must then be voted on by the EU's council of ministers in October.

There are three possible scenarios. The commission can recommend that the accession will take place on 1 January, 2007 without any further conditions; it can recommend that the accession is possible on that date but with further monitoring necessary to ensure conditions are met; or it can recommend that accession is put off until 1 January 2008 at the latest.

What is likely to happen?

It is regarded as unlikely that a decision will be made to defer accession for 12 months, as both countries have made considerable progress towards meeting the criteria laid down by the EU. The smart money is that the accession is likely to be approved for next January, but with further ongoing monitoring to ensure conditions are met.

The commission regards the establishment of an impartial, independent and effective justice system . . . in both countries, and properly equipped to fight corruption and organised crime . . . as "of paramount importance."

Bulgaria needs to demonstrate clear evidence of results in both the fight against corruption and the further reform of the judiciary. Romania "needs to continue its efforts, and demonstrate further results, in the fight against corruption, " as well as consolidating "the implementation of the ongoing judicial reforms." The monitoring will be undertaken by the European Commission and experts from the 25 member states.

Does that mean that workers from Bulgaria and Romania will be free to come to Ireland to work from 1 January next?

Not necessarily and probably not. As happened two years ago when the 10 new member states joined, each existing member state can choose how to phase in freedom of movement from Romanian and Bulgarian citizens. Members can obviously opt to admit workers from those countries straight away. Or they can put it off for two years, then renew that block for another two years (while explaining why).

If a country can then show serious disturbance of their labour market, they can get the block renewed for a further three years . . . potentially deferring entry until 2014. In 2004, Ireland was one of just three EU states to fully open its labour market to citizens of the 10 accession states. Since then 251,032 PPS numbers have been given to citizens from those countries by the Department of Social Affairs here. Workers from these states have been hugely important in filling shortages in the labour market and keeping the economy growing at its strong rate. However, the feeling is that the government is unlikely to allow unrestricted access to workers from Romania and Bulgaria from 1 January next. The issue is currently being discussed with the social partners and a final decision will not be made until later this autumn.

Why is the government unlikely to repeat its decision of 2004 and allow immediate access to workers from the two new member states?

There is a feeling within government that, while the country continues to require migrant workers to sustain the economy, those needs are adequately met by the 10 states which joined the EU two years ago.

While that decision has worked well, there is a view that it should be given further time to "bed down."

There is also frustration in government at the failure of other EU states . . . particularly big countries such as France, Germany and Italy . . . to follow suit and open up their labour markets to workers from the 10 states. As a result, there is a reluctance to unilaterally open up the Irish labour market even further.

Politics is also undeniably a factor. While there is little or no evidence of job displacement, the government would be worried that a perception would take hold that Irish workers are losing out. They would be concerned that, in an election year, the opposition might take advantage of this.

What are the arguments for opening up to Romanian and Bulgarian workers straight away?

Ireland courageously took the lead in opening up to the 10 accession states and reaped the benefits. The combined population of both Romania and Bulgaria is less than 30% of the 10 accession states, and surveys in both countries have shown a low level of interest among the population in emigrating to EU states.