In the grasp to claim paternity of the beast, from frothing politicians to corporate clowns clutching their iron-clad balls, education has been largely overlooked. It's 30 years since a democratic form of entry to third level was devised.

It's nearly 40 since free second level was introduced. Both were highly significant in delivering a thoroughly educated generation well-positioned to ride the Tiger when he showed up.

Prior to the CAO system's introduction, college was the preserve of those with money. Ability was an optional extra. The CAO did away with that. Sure, there were still inequalities, particularly in later years, when money talked through grind schools. But certain standards were maintained. You either had the required points or you did not. Now all that has changed, and what could well emerge from the debris is at least a partial return to how it was before.

There are, however, some positives about the demise of the CAO system. It placed huge stress on second-level students and their parents.

It also funnelled education into rote learning in order to achieve results.

In an enlightened world, we would expect rote learning to be replaced by more mind-broadening activities.

The arts in particular could do with a better airing in order to deliver a more rounded education. Training students in the rudiments of social capital . . . a favourite concept of that well-known socialist Bertie Ahern . . .

wouldn't go astray either.

But don't hold your breath. With the likes of IBEC ranting about how they want kids to be educated, and the increasing foray of the private sector into education, expect the demands of the market rather than attempts at a more rounded education to have greater influence at second level.

Expect also a drop in standards at third level. Falling numbers have put paid to the points system whereby colleges determine entry standards. In future, students will have to be enticed.

Entry levels will be lowered to ensure places are filled.

Thus the quality of student may not be what it has been in the past. Then either standards fall, or the repeat rate rises.

If it's the latter, full fees will be due and that in turn will be the preserve of the wealthy, of which there are many today. The power of money will transfer from second level to third level. Grind schools may go out of business, but the fees they were once paid will now go towards repeating at third level.

The number of "chronic students", who keep repeating until they stumble over the finish line, will increase.

This species is quite common in the US, and maybe it is appropriate that we will ape that country in education as we have done in everything else. Ultimately, it is the state as a whole that will suffer by producing substandard graduates.

Another aspect of the new order is the introduction of interviews for some courses to test an applicant's suitability. On the face of it, this is a positive development. But will it be possible to keep it free of undue influence?

The most surprising thing about the demise of the points system is that the brainy people in academia didn't see it coming, or if they did, they ignored it. The demographic trends that herald the new order have been known for decades. Yet third-level institutions have been continually expanding in size. A number of universities have within them dedicated schools for the likes of medicine and architecture, all built in the last decade . . .

when it was known this day wasn't far off. Perhaps the focus has been more on empire building than on planning for the future.

Between it all, the fabled edge that Irish education delivered for so long is being blunted. There could be trouble ahead. Let's be careful out there.