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A slice of Apple and I gained 600 in two days



MARKETS have been strong lately. In this type of environment, you want to be making money. I'm not complaining on that score.

With no losing trades this week, I think the market monkey is getting into his stride.

Mind you, I wouldn't get as excited as the CNBC boys were this week. All this stuff about the Dow Jones being on the verge of an all-time high . . . it's not really relevant.

Remember, the Dow is comprised of just 30 stocks.

The Nasdaq and the S&P 500, in contrast, are well off their all-time highs.

Monday morning saw me add to my position in Apple.

Like the overall market, the stock had pulled back slightly towards the end of the previous week. When it opened strongly on Monday morning, I jumped in, getting filled at $74. It was obvious that the stock had decent support in the $72.50 area, so I placed my stop not far underneath.

Betting 2 for each 1 cent rise, that worked out at a maximum loss of around 400. Like I said last week, each trade should put no more than 2% of your capital at risk. An Apple reversal isn't going to keep me awake at night.

Anyway, that's academic now. Tuesday saw the Nasdaq in full bull mode and Apple was no different, prompting me to take partial profits at the $77 region. 600 in two days . . .

I'll take that.

Talking of Apple, I got a lecture from my bright spark broker this week on how overpriced the stock is:

Blah Blah forward p/e ratio of 36. . . blah blah. . . too expensive. . . blah blah. . .

competition the iPod is facing from Sony and Microsoft. . .

blah blah. . .

Steve Jobs losing his touch. . . blah blah blah. . .

I'm trading, not investing.

Just as I'm long Apple this week, I might be short next week. I don't care about the stock either way. I'm not tied to some opinion.

Apple is just another ticker symbol to me. Price action, not some half-baked perception of the fundamentals, is what governs my actions. The chattering classes can get all bothered about who is going to be leading the digital revolution in 2010.

That doesn't interest me.

Anyway, rant over. I'm feeling pretty 'yahooish' about my short position in Yahoo! The stock hit a 52week low this week, falling below the $25 level.

Considering the buoyancy of the Nasdaq recently, Yahoo! is looking absolutely awful. Long may it continue.

I'm seeing more potential short trades than long options at the moment.

The market is badly in need of a breather, having run up so strongly over the last two months. The strength this week is partially due to some end of quarter window-dressing. Windowdressing refers to the practice of fund managers who buy into strong markets or stocks at the end of a particular quarter in order to give the impression they've been holding the goodies all along. Anyway, I'm loathe to chase stocks that have run up so fast.

More to the point, I think a reversal is on the cards.

Over 80% of stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average, which is a sure sign that even the dregs are being carried along by the upward momentum. Historically, when the 80% level is breached, a change isn't far away.

I think Halloween is coming early this year and I'm getting my bear costume ready.

It dawned on me that last week's article, where I took the high moral ground with the hedge fund trader who lost $5bn in September, probably raised a few eyebrows among some readers. After all, look at me, trying to quadruple my account in one year - who am I to lecture on risk management?

OK, it's ambitious, but I don't have to take crazy risks to get there. To be specific, 12% per month, compounded, would do the trick.

As my account grows, my bet size will increase but my percentage risk per trade won't.

So far, I'm on schedule. I'd hoped to be at around 28,000 by the end of September - mission accomplished (well, nearly).

Of course, it will get more difficult. It's been a good market to trade recently.

I'm also conscious that a bigger account size brings its own problems (money can make one do funny things).

Hopefully, this monkey's trading will continue to improve as the year progresses.




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