"All of these things fall short of what we could consider acceptable but what the Irish people have to decide is whether they want the government to break up and a person who has achieved huge things for Ireland to bow out on this, " McDowell said on Friday evening.

If Bertie Ahern threw himself on the mercy of the viewing public on RTE television last Tuesday, McDowell has decided to adopt a variation of the public opinion theme.

In the absence of further damning revelations . . . and as long as Ahern can deliver a credible Dail performance on Tuesday . . . the PDs are not about to walk out of government. The PD leader said as much when he stressed that he had "an abhorrence to heads on plates and that also goes for delivering my own head on a plate."

The opposition will see McDowell's stance as the beginning of a climbdown that will be confirmed on Tuesday with a statement accepting the version of events given to the Dail by Ahern. There will be significant tick-tacking in government over the coming days to ensure the detail in Ahern's statement is sufficient to appease the smaller party in coalition.

There is, however, only one issue to be addressed in the current crisis . . . was it correct for Bertie Ahern when he was finance minister in 1994 to have taken stg£8,000 from a group of businessmen in Manchester? It is hard to see how this question can be answered with anything other than, "No, it was wholly inappropriate."

In drawing in Ahern's record as Taoiseach, McDowell is sidestepping the main question. Albert Reynolds delivered a historic IRA statement in August 1994 but that was not enough to prevent his departure as Taoiseach a little over three months later.

Supporters of McDowell argue that, by being willing to give Ahern the benefit of the doubt, the PD leader is merely adopting a practical political position. But it is a dangerous game for a PD leader to be playing. The party has a selfstyled reputation built on adherence to higher ethical standards than others in political life. Back in July 1994, during the passports-for-sale controversy, McDowell labelled Dick Spring, the then Tanaiste and Labour leader, as "morally brain-dead."

McDowell's words uttered in different circumstances are applicable to the current controversy. "He [Spring] cannot seriously survey the facts I mentioned and say that what happened was proper. If he reflected on the matter, he would see there has been a highly improper abuse of public office to financially benefit a member of the government.

The Tanaiste's critical faculties are not normally so defective as to prevent him seeing the obvious truth of the situation, " McDowell concluded in 1994.

The PD leader is now on a sticky wicket. The sight of senior Fianna Fail ministers out defending the Taoiseach this weekend is a clear signal that the party is not about to give up its leader based on the evidence . . . however damaging . . . that is already in the public domain. Neither is Fianna Fail about to give up Ahern because of angst in PD circles.

The difficulties between the PDs and Fianna Fail in recent days have not been helped by a lack of clear communications and established personal relationships between Ahern's officials in Government Buildings and advisers in McDowell's office. Sources in both parties have been speculating about whether matters would have been handled better had Mary Harney still been PD leader. The new dynamic in the relationship between the two parties and their respective leaders is clearly at play.

So with Fianna Fail rallying to Ahern's defence, how does McDowell respond? He could pull the PDs out of government this week. The fallout from this action would be an immediate general election or Fianna Fail continuing on as a minority administration before calling a contest in 2007.

As a new leader with plenty of organisational work to do to prepare his party for an electoral contest, McDowell does not want an early election. There would also be huge risks in taking his party into opposition over the next eight months and having to watch from the sidelines as Fianna Fail fulfilled a policy programme that was agreed with the PDs.

It is against that background that McDowell has this weekend signalled a willingness to accept Ahern eating humble pie next Tuesday. Assuming the Taoiseach gives a credible performance, the PDs will stay put.

The irony is that the biggest losers out of Ahern taking money in Manchester may be the PDs. As Fergus O'Dowd of Fine Gael told this newspaper yesterday: "The PDs have clearly abdicated any credibility they once might have had in addressing the issue of accountability in high office."

The price of blinking may well be a high one for McDowell and his PD colleagues.