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BRACE YOURSELF FOR IMPACT
Colm Greaves



WAY back in the old days . . . well in the 1990s anyway . . . it was still okay for Hollywood directors to blow up skyscrapers, and they did so with as much gusto and violence as computer graphics and their budgets allowed. Of course the accepted wisdom back then was that the Millennium Bug (remember that? ) was going to finish us all off anyway so film-makers jumped eagerly aboard the paranoia bandwagon and spent as much money as they could producing increasingly cataclysmic intergalactic disaster movies.

In one of the more forgettable of the type, President Morgan Freeman had the onerous task of saving a million American souls as a seedbed of the future population when a comet drifted on to an unavoidable collision course with planet Earth.

It was only right and proper that an event as serious and terminable as this was given the right kind of highvelocity Los Angeles marketing spin. The movie was named Deep Impact and the tagline was "Heaven and Earth are about to collide".

Now at first glance this doesn't seem to have a lot to do with a horse race, but take a closer look at events in Paris this afternoon. The favourite for the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe, Europe's most prestigious middle-distance horse race, is trained in Japan, which is a little like installing Fermanagh as favourites for the Liam McCarthy Cup. The animal in question is a national monument back home, revered by millions with the same unquestioning love enjoyed by the likes of Arkle and Istabraq here in Ireland.

Their hero is also called Deep Impact and he too is on an unavoidable collision course, this time with some of the best middle-distance horses on Earth. And if he wins, his fans at the course and in Japan will be somewhere close to heaven.

A victory for the land of the rising sun in a race of this magnitude may not be as fanciful as it first appears. Over the last decade there have been increasingly frequent raids from Japan on European pattern races, and there have been notable victories for Seeking the Pearl in a Group One in France and for Agnes World, who famously won the July Cup at Newmarket in 2000.

Perhaps the most worthy achievement to date however came in the Arc itself in 1999, just after President Freeman had helped the world dodge the comet. El Condor Pasa, trained in Japan, cruised five lengths clear coming into the straight and looked all over a winner before the great Monjeu, under a masterpiece from Mick Kinane, caught and beat him in the last 100 metres.

The emergence of horses of the quality of El Condor Pasa and Deep Impact is not an accident. In common with their colleagues in the business world, Japanese breeders are willing to give a sapling enough water and time to grow, mature and develop.

Their long-term strategy has been to breed quality into home-bred bloodstock, specifically targeting the production of high-class middledistance horses that seem to get better with age. Stallions of the calibre of Generous, Soviet Star and Sunday Silence were all purchased from recession-hit western breeders in the early 1990s and are among the key foundation stones of what might yet become a bloodstock empire and racing powerhouse.

Deep Impact himself is a fairly ordinary-looking fouryear-old son of Sunday Silence, but don't be deceived by appearances. He has only once been beaten in 11 starts and has picked up $10 million in the process. Last year he became only the second horse to ever win the Japanese Triple Crown while unbeaten when he captured the local St Leger, or 'Kikkasho', in front of a record crowd of 137,000 adoring fans who all sounded like they had backed him. Actually they had all backed him. The winning dividend for a one-yen win on the tote was. . . one yen.

His charisma lies in both his versatility and his style of racing. He has won at many distances up to two miles and most of his races have been visually exciting affairs . . .

bursts of speed delivered late and wide for deceptively easylooking wins.

The hype surrounding Deep Impact, or 'Deep' as he is affectionately known by his trainer, Yasuo Ikee, has resulted in thousands of Japanese surnames turning up on the booking registers of Parisian hotels this weekend. The only question is whether or not the hype is based on an objective assessment of his chances in the race and not just on eastern mass hysteria.

In order to win he will need to overcome some fairly stiff barriers. He hasn't run since June which is an unusually long absence going into a race of this calibre and the ground may well be softer than he has encountered in his career to date.

Another problem is the size of the field. There are only eight runners and if the pace is muddling or slow it will not help Deep Impact, who looks to be at his best coming off a fast pace in a big field.

Ikee appears to be unconcerned. He brought the horse to France over a month ago to acclimatise and prepare for the race, and after watching a recent piece of work he confidently declared "that he is a far better horse than El Condor Pasa. Everything is going to plan and seems to be perfect. Deep Impact will be ready whenever the race is run".

He is probably right on both counts, but fitness and readiness may be the least of Deep Impact's worries. There hasn't been a year with fewer horses in the Arc since 1941, when the citizens of Paris were focusing on difficulties a little more urgent than finding the winner of a horse race.

However, the absence of quantity is easily offset by the pure, unadulterated, topnotch quality of the field.

Unusually, there are no Irish-trained runners, but Coolmore is represented by last year's brilliant winner, Hurricane Run. Kieren Fallon, who thankfully enjoys a presumption of innocence in France as well as Ireland, takes the ride and will be keen to embellish a difficult season with a repeat of the brilliance of last year. Hurricane's trainer, Andre Fabre, also saddles Breeders Cup Turf-winner Shirocco, who some believe cannot be beaten if the ground turns up soft.

Even if these hills didn't look as steep as Mount Fuji to Deep Impact he must also overcome some other really useful horses such as Rail Link, Sixties Icon and Pride.

The key to this afternoon's outcome may well be found in July's King George Stakes at Ascot, in which the Japanese raider Hearts Cry was a close-up third to Hurricane Run.

Hearts Cry is the only horse ever to have beaten Deep Impact, and a literal interpretation of that form suggests that the eastern superstar is held by the Europeans. In fairness to Deep Impact though, that defeat came at the end of a hard season and the horse didn't get the greatest ride in the world that day.

Irrespective of the result this afternoon there is no doubt that the presence of Deep Impact lends an intriguing aspect to today's contest.

It might not be a collision between Heaven and Earth, but it is certainly the most savoury clash of east and west that a racecourse has so far witnessed.

If Deep Impact prevails, the crescendo of cheers from the Japanese visitors may well trigger an interplanetary catastrophe. If it does, look out for Morgan Freeman and, if you see him, run for cover as fast as your legs will carry you.




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