Unless that monkey were me.

It's been an awful week. I was awful. The sadists among you scurrying to the end of the column to see how much money was lost will be disappointed. I didn't lose much. Problem is, I should have made a packet.

Monday morning saw me stopped out at break-even on the remainder of my Apple position after the stock dipped on an analyst downgrade. Why anyone cares is beyond me . . . the same analyst firm has had either a 'sell' or 'hold' on Apple for the bulk of the last three years, during which time the stock has appreciated by almost 1000%.

Still, I wasn't too bothered. Sure, I'd given up some nice gains, but I'd stuck to my plan (let winners run while protecting profits through careful monitoring of stop loss orders) and made some decent money in the process. Traders without a plan, without a method, are trading on hope. That's no way to make money.

I bought into Elan on the same day. Elan has been in a trading range the last few weeks, hovering around the $15-$16 area. The fact that it was both nearing the bottom of this range and coming into its 200-day moving average meant it was well worth a shot. I put my stop underneath the $15 level . . . nice and tight, allowing for a decent-sized position. Anyway, I got this one right and closed out at $15.80 on Wednesday, making 400 or so for myself.

Currently, my only holding is the short position in Yahoo. It's up as of last week, but I don't see any conviction there. If the market dips . . . a big if, admittedly . . . Yahoo should resume its slide.

On to the missed opportunities. Firstly, oil.

Yet again, the price was hammered last week. After a weak rally towards the end of the previous week, a great shorting set-up presented itself last Friday.

Unfortunately, I didn't spot it until it was too late.

Monday morning saw a second chance granted, with the price opening around the same level ($63) I could have got on Friday.

Resistance ($64) was nearby, whereas the only obvious support level was under $60. In other words, a 3:1 risk: reward ratio . . . you don't get much better than that.

What did I do? Nothing. I couldn't pull the trigger.

Don't ask me why. The monkey became a chicken.

The price plummeted over the next two days, hitting a new low for the year (under $58).

How much would I have made? A per trade risk of 400 would have meant a 2000 profit. Even if i played it conservative and opted for a per trade risk of 200, I'd be a grand richer by now.

Catastrophic omission number two occurred on Tuesday morning. The Nasdaq 100 had relieved its overbought status by dropping off in price over the previous two sessions.

Tuesday morning saw more weakness, only this time two support levels . . . the 20 and 200 day moving averages . . .

were obvious.

Really, this was a nobrainer. The trend was up.

When the trend is up, buyers step in on weakness, especially when in an obvious support zone.

I did nothing. I was well aware of the technical position but elected to waste time staring at the Elan share price, among others. It was sloppiness, pure and simple.

Of course, markets really took off on Wednesday. Had I entered on Tuesday, I'd be up well over 1000 by now.

Add in the oil trade and I missed out on some great money last week.

I realise it sounds pathetic. There's nothing worse than some loser saying, "I'd have made if I did X or Y". I usually run a mile when I hear such nonsense. What sickens me is that I'm not indulging in wishful thinking. Nine times out of ten, I would have taken both those trades.

They were two good, clean, low-risk set-ups.

Did I really believe that the Nasdaq would take off like it did on Wednesday, or that oil would drop as hard as it did? Hardly. Market Monkey doesn't have a crystal ball. But you don't need a crystal ball to make money in this game. You take the good set-ups and avoid the bad ones. Trade well and the money should follow. Trade crap and. . .

well, you can guess.

This week? I'm tempted to get short Elan if it gets closer to the top of its recent trading range (say, around $16.20).

I'm not seeing many long set-ups. If the market roars ahead, so be it. I don't chase strong markets (that's even worse than what I did last week). If anything, I might be tempted to short if the indices get very extended.

As for oil, it makes no sense to short at these levels. A technical bounce is well overdue, although you could have said the same thing a few weeks ago. It's very difficult to call a bottom in these cases.

In the meantime, I'll have to get over last week's pathetic performance. No point crying over spilled milk. Lesson learned.

Weekly gain/loss: - 400 Overall balance: 27,400