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How big a leap of faith is Paisley's party willing to take?
Suzanne Breen Northern Editor



'W HAT'S a Roman Catholic doing at a DUP dinner?" Ian Paisley bellowed at me recently in Belfast's Hilton hotel. His PR team looked aghast. Then, their leader dissolved into laughter as he offered a hearty handshake. New DUP or not, there's no repackaging Ian Paisley.

But he'll be on his best behaviour tomorrow when he meets the Catholic primate, Archbishop Sean Brady, to discuss political matters at Stormont. Certainly, he's unlikely to call Brady a "red-hatted weasel" as he did his predecessor, Cahal Daly; nor refer to Rome as the "whore of Babylon" as he does in his Martyrs' Memorial Church.

"Archbishop Brady seems a quiet wee man, " says one DUP Assembly member. "But he has nothing to worry about. People will be surprised at how friendly and respectful Ian will be."

The Catholic church has been requesting a meeting with Paisley for some time. The DUP's scheduling of it just two days before the Scotland talks is aimed at sending a clear message to nationalists: 'We might have issues to iron out about entering government with Sinn Fein but it's not true we don't want a Catholic about the place.'

There were plenty of Catholics at the DUP dinner including Frank Cushnahan, chairman of the Belfast Harbour Commissioners, and Brendan Mulgrew of Stakeholder Communications. Journalists and outsiders have traditionally attended SDLP and Ulster Unionist receptions, but this was new territory.

Normally, DUP dinners are teetotal. Not a drop of the 'devil's buttermilk' passed Paisley's lips but, in the spirit of the changing times, two bottles of wine graced every table, including his own. "Ian will turn the wine back into water in a minute, " joked a Co Down member.

But the biggest surprise was the after-dinner entertainment: Sean Crummey, the Catholic comedian behind the BBC series The Folks on the Hill, which regularly satirises the DUP. Paisley moved his chair to sit right under Crummey's nose as the act began. "Dia dhuit, Ian, mo chara. It's great to be here!" said Crummey in his best Gerry Adams accent. Paisley and his party were in stitches.

They laughed all the way through the "DUP Oscars": Ian Paisley for Dr No; Ian jnr for In the Name of the Father; Peter Robinson for One Angry Man.

"There was no attempt to censor my material, " said Crummey. "I was pleasantly surprised at how heartily they laughed, especially at themselves. I'm from west Belfast. My ma and da, God rest them, would laugh their legs off at the idea of me at a DUP dinner!"

But, token gestures aside, is the DUP ready to embrace nationalism at this week's talks? Robinson is universally believed to be keener on a deal than his leader. While he is undoubtedly more focused on power, there are no substantial policy differences between the two. Sources say Paisley hasn't sided with South Antrim MP Willie McCrea, who is suspicious of any deal.

Agreement by the governments' deadline is impossible. The most optimistic scenario is that this week's negotiations can lead to an outline deal which will be fine-tuned by a further six weeks of hard talk. By 24 November, a timetable for restoring devolution could be agreed.

The DUP would pledge to enter government with Sinn Fein if that party's leadership persuades a special ardfheis to support the Police Service of Northern Ireland. With dozens of resignations and the threat of more, the Provisionals have faced tougher internal opposition over policing than over any other issue, including decommissioning.

Still, no-one doubts Adams-McGuinness won't win on policing. And, with an increasing preference for Mary Lou types, the resignation of hardliners benefits the leadership in the long-term.

'Ian is unpredictable' Devolving policing and justice powers to Stormont will prove contentious at negotiations. Sinn Fein wants this to happen quickly. It would strengthen the leadership's hand in the internal policing debate, enabling it to tell grassroots it had "wrested power from 'the securocrats'". The DUP wants a considerable delay. Gerry Kelly as justice minister would be too much for its supporters to swallow quickly.

An SDLP source insists both parties are exaggerating the issue: "Devolving policing powers will be neither the big breakthrough the Shinners talk of, nor the big bogeyman the DUP presents. A policing minister won't have sweeping powers like running the security apparatus. Their greatest power will be introducing legislation, such as a bill to end 50% remission for sex offenders. But the policing minister can't give orders to the chief constable."

Another disputed issue is the election of the first minister and deputy first minister. Under the Belfast agreement, they're elected together by the assembly. The DUP's demand that this change is supported by current British government proposals.

An SDLP source says: "This is to spare DUP blushes at having to vote for Martin McGuinness as deputy first minister when voting Ian Paisley in as first minister. But a joint election provides for a joint leadership and that's vital.

"When loyalists shot dead Damien Trainor, a Catholic, and Philip Allen, a Protestant, in Poyntzpass in 1998, David Trimble and Seamus Mallon visited the village together. Electing these two ministers on a joint ticket encourages cross-community partnership."

In the event of a deal, it's widely expected Paisley will be first minister for the first 18 months, with Peter Robinson taking over after that. "Nonsense, " says a DUP source. "Paisley will stay on. If he becomes Northern Ireland prime minister, it will take a crow-bar to wrest it from him."

For some republicans, it's a topsy-turvy world.

Ex-IRA prisoner Anthony McIntyre says: "In Long Kesh, we shouted defiantly: 'Up the 'Ra! Jail Paisley!' Now the Sinn Fein slogan effectively is 'Up Paisley! Jail the 'Ra.'" A DUP talks demand, likely to be resisted by Sinn Fein and the governments, is for a safety mechanism to protect any future executive if IRA paramilitary activity resumes. The DUP wants assurances that Sinn Fein would be excluded from power but the administration could continue without it.

Few observers would disagree with last week's IMC report on the winding down of IRA paramilitarism. Privately, senior DUP figures accept the Provo war is over.

But the assertion that the IRA, as an organisation, is no longer involved in crime has been less convincing.

"We suspect the governments restricted the flow of material from the security services to the IMC.

We're not challenging the IMC's bona fides. It faithfully reflected the sieved information it received, " says a senior DUP source. "It's ridiculous to suggest the IRA as an organisation is no longer involved in crime. Even had the IRA wanted to, it couldn't have dismantled its criminal empire so quickly."

The nature of 'IRA Inc' has changed. Robberies are banned and there's a move away from the smuggled cigarettes and counterfeit DVD/CD market. Investment is now almost wholly in legitimate businesses . . . shopping complexes, apartment blocks, pubs and hotels.

The DUP will learn to live with this. The Northern Bank £26m will never be handed in. The most the DUP can hope for is some cases being pursued by the police, Criminal Assets Bureau, and Assets Recovery Agency.

British government attempts to blackmail the DUP into a deal with Sinn Fein continue to backfire.

The party is regularly told it can prevent a raft of unpopular measures . . .

water charges, hikes in property rates, the abolition of the 11-plus . . . if an agreement is reached by 24 November. Such tactics have actually reinforced the party's resistance.

"They leaked a document warning we would lose £1.5m in assembly salaries and expenses, " the DUP leader says.

"They never mentioned the losses to any other party, only mine.

Do they think Ian Paisley is motivated by money?"

Indeed, the governments are far more desperate for a deal than the DUP. With Iraq a mess and his party divided, Tony Blair is keen to end his premiership on a positive note. What better way than bringing stability to Northern Ireland? It would also help Bertie Ahern kick-start his election campaign.

The earliest an executive will be formed is next spring. Some DUP figures favour an assembly election before any new administration sits. This would be an opportunity to wipe out the Ulster Unionists. With Irish elections around the corner, Sinn Fein is less keen on a spring poll.

If these negotiations depend on anyone, it's Paisley. What will he do? The governments, the SDLP and Sinn Fein, still aren't certain.

"Ian is unpredictable, " admits a DUP insider. At 80 years of age, he's unlikely to change.




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