PRIVATE investors are flocking back to stocks and shares and also keeping their money close to home. That's the upbeat message from the Irish stock exchange, which last week reported a 15% jump in trading volumes in the first nine months of the year, much of it driven by the individual investor.
But scratch beneath the surface and a more complicated picture emerges. Private clients may no longer be the poor relation for stockbrokers, grabbing more of the limelight from the dominant institutional business.
But this new money is as likely to flow into overseas property or private equity deals as the stock market. And even when it ends up in Irish equities, the interest is often speculative in nature, with investors chasing quick returns by taking highlyleveraged positions through contracts for difference.
Brian Healy, director of trading at the exchange, estimates that as much as 40% of the business on Anglesea Street this year has been retail. The Aer Lingus flotation was a bellwether for the strength of demand, with 11% of the airline's shares ending up in private hands before Ryanair launched its dawn raid.
"Aer Lingus is a case in point for what's happening across the board, " Healy says.
"The lead managers were very surprised by the strength of retail demand, even with the 10,000 minimum investment."
The trend has shifted the balance of power at the big stockbrokers and it is understood that the private clients division at Davy's is flexing its new muscles to carve out a bigger share of the spoils in the management buyout being negotiated with Bank of Ireland.
It has also led to new arrivals, with Denmark's Danske Bank joining the exchange as a prelude to National Irish Bank, which it acquired last year, rolling out a state-of-the-art share trading service.
Stockbrokers are also following the money into the provinces, with Merrion announcing plans for a Cork office and Davy setting up shop in Galway tomorrow.
But Stephen Felle, the man in charge of Davy's outposts in Cork and Galway, says only a fraction of clients' money ends up in Irish equities.
"We're finding that, more and more, a lot of what we do is managing clients' asset allocation outside Ireland, " he says. "If somebody came in with 1m to invest, we probably wouldn't put more than 30% into Ireland. It's not that we don't like Ireland, it's just there are economies out there that could perform better."
He estimates that pure equity investment accounts for no more than half of Davy's private clients' business, as more money flows into foreign property and alternative investments including commodities, hedge funds and private equity.
Nevertheless, surging stock markets over the past three years are tipping the balance back in favour of equities, according to Pat O'Sullivan, an economist at Bank of Ireland Private Banking who estimates that Ireland is home to 30,000 millionaires.
"We've seen about three times more money flowing into equities than commercial property this year, " he says.
"There's a growing recognition of the value in the market, especially when you look at growth forecasts for earnings and the economy."
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