A bizarre result? Not really. The outcome may be as much about the public's conclusion on the 'payments-to-Bertie' affair as about their confidence in an alternative government led by Kenny and Labour's Pat Rabbitte.

The former . . . a view of the payments controversy . . . will be a short-term disappointment for Fine Gael and Labour. But the latter . . . confidence in the alternative . . . will set off alarm bells within two opposition parties.

"It's time for a new team with new ideas, " is one of the slogans accompanying the latest Fine Gael national billboard campaign. The evidence from today's poll is that the voters remain unconvinced about those ideas and the people responsible for them. Fine Gael and Labour strategists will shiver at the thought, but Election 2007 could be over before 2006 has even come to an end.

The recent controversy over money taken by Bertie Ahern undoubtedly placed the opposition parties in a difficult position. There was a natural sense of decency about not engaging in a row involving Ahern's marital separation. But once attention focused on the Manchester cash, the opposition were presented with a glorious opportunity to skewer Ahern.

He had personally profited from attending a function in Manchester in 1993 while he was finance minister. However, the opposition's Dail performances lacked conviction. It was never clear what they wanted as an end result. In the end, they failed to lead public opinion and they got caught in no-man'sland.

Today's opinion poll presents an understanding of the public's approach to the payments controversy.

The respondents indicate that it is wrong for a serving government minister to act as Ahern did. But the poll results also show that the public are using a 'scandal scale' in judging the appropriate punishment. It would seem the base principle . . . taking money . . . is not as important as the amounts involved and the circumstances in which the money was received.

Judged against Charles Haughey and Michael Lowry, Ahern is obviously seen as a low-level sinner.

The public view of the controversy may have been coloured somewhat by it being linked to Ahern's private life. His interview on RTE's Six-One News most likely generated a certain amount of sympathy. The public may be faulted for being ambiguous about ethical standards, but they may have been considering the wider political scene when 65% said Ahern should not have resigned.

Being caught offside in the payments controversy on its own does not explain why the main opposition parties have lost support over the last five weeks.

While Fine Gael is down by six points to 20%, support for Labour has also fallen from 12% to 10%. Since the last Sunday Tribune/IMS Millward Brown opinion poll, media attention and political commentary has been framed in the context of the imminent general election. Poll respondents were asked for their opinions with the actual polling booths closer in view than previously.

Over the last five weeks, the voters have seen plenty of the alternative coalition. Kenny and Rabbitte held their now annual meeting in Mullingar in early September. This was followed by the considerable publicity generated by Pat Rabbitte's dramatic arrival in Sligo at the Fine Gael parliamentary party think-in. Kenny followed a week later when he visited Labour's thinkin in Cork. The two leaders then put on their wellingtons for a photo opportunity at the annual ploughing championships in Carlow.

Alongside the images of Kenny and Rabbitte, the parties have published two joint policy documents on aspects of the health service. Fine Gael has also spent heavily in recent weeks on its national billboard campaign.

It is difficult to accept that, even with the payments controversy, all this Fine Gael-Labour activity has gone unnoticed by the voters. The real worry for Fine Gael, and Labour to a lesser degree, is that having seen Kenny on offer as the alternative Taoiseach, the public has emerged unconvinced about his ability to fill the top political job in the land. Kenny is a decent and likeable man. He's done a good job in dragging Fine Gael back into the political game after its electoral disaster in 2002. But that is not the record on which the voters will judge him. The only test Kenny faces is the one which asks . . . could this man be Taoiseach?

The Labour Party has for some time been aware of public resistance to the idea of Kenny as Taoiseach. Earlier this year, this newspaper published private focus group research commissioned by Labour. The researchers found that Kenny was "seen as a weakness in the party. He was not liked in general by these respondents, nor was he seen as an effective leader." The same research also showed respondents displaying a nervousness about the ability of Rabbitte and Kenny to manage the last Sunday Tribune opinion poll, some 50% of respondents said Ahern would make a better Taoiseach against 29% backing Kenny. Those figures are now 56% and 25% respectively. Five weeks ago, 37% said Ahern was the party leader who best understood the socio-economic issues affecting modern Ireland. Eighteen per cent backed Kenny. This weekend, Ahern has increased his standing to 44% while fewer people (13%) now think the Fine Gael leader best understands these key issues. On the basis of today's poll, it would seem that the voters prefer their leaders to be flawed rather than untested.