Labour's support is also down in this latest Sunday Tribune/Millward Brown IMS opinion poll. The party was at 11% support at the last general election, and hit 12% in last month's poll by this newspaper, but today sits at 10%. Labour has seen no uplift in its support over the last four years and, on these figures, will struggle to hold seats at the next general election.

After almost 10 years out of government, the party is facing into a second decade on the opposition benches.

While Labour remains flat across all Millward Brown IMS opinion polls since the 2002 general election, the ratings for its party leader have been relatively stable. Rabbitte's satisfaction rating, at 45%, has increased by one point since last month, although his dissatisfaction rating has also risen four points to 36%. He can take some comfort in the fact that 83% of Labour supporters expressed satisfaction with the way he is performing as party leader.

So with a poor party rating but a decent leader satisfaction rating, could it be that it is the alliance with Fine Gael that is actually holding back support for Labour? How Pat Rabbitte answers that question will determine the choices he makes as the general election approaches.

It is hard to find any comfort for Fine Gael in today's opinion poll. Support for the party has collapsed in urban areas while, at 13% in Dublin, Fine Gael has fallen into third place behind Fianna Fail and Labour in the pecking order in the capital. Fine Gael now draws a disproportionate amount of its support from rural Ireland. The party also performs best with voters over 65. It has a 25% support level among voters aged 65 and over, versus 17% in the 1824 age group.

Kenny also has problems with those who should be backing his alternative coalition. Only 61% of those who support Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party said he was doing a good job; among Labour Party voters the figure is 48%, while among his own party supporters the figure increases to 77%.

Fine Gael has not tasted success in a general election since November 1982. Kenny's party has a single card to play at the forthcoming contest . . .

either the alternative coalition with Labour wins power or Fine Gael settles once more for life on the opposition benches in Leinster House.

Rabbitte's party has other options should it wish to exercise them. The possibility of government with Fianna Fail will remain a live option until after the votes have been counted and the 166 seats in the next Dail decided. But coalition with Fianna Fail is a post-election debate. It would be untenable for Rabbitte to do a u-turn on electoral strategy at this juncture.

He could, however, cool relations with Kenny's party. The sight of the two leaders merrily embracing for photo opportunities may become rarer. Rabbitte could also demand greater radicalism in policy formation than has been evident in the joint documents published to date by the two parties. Projecting Labour's identity to a greater extent, while protecting the party brand in its alliance with Fine Gael, may soon become a big consideration for Rabbitte.

Interestingly, Rabbitte and Kenny both poll well with women voters and especially among 'working women'. Some 41% of women think Kenny is doing a good job (36% are dissatisfied) whereas only 35% of men are happy with his performance (49% are dissatisfied). While men are more evenly divided about the Labour leader, 45% of women are satisfied with how he is doing his job, with 31% dissatisfied.

There are similar strong support levels from the group of poll respondents classified as 'working women'. The latter group also reports a high level of dissatisfaction with the current government, indicating that childcare issues still rankle with many voters.

It's a mere glimmer of hope but it may well be that if the Fine Gael-Labour alliance were to start offering a genuine policy alternative the voters might come their way. With seven months to polling day, Fine Gael and Labour have to start taking risks.