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Green light for Sargent while young voters are still drawn to Sinn Fein
Shane Coleman



SUPPORT for the Green Party, and its leader Trevor Sargent has risen over the past month, according to the Sunday Tribune/Millward Brown IMS polls. The party's support edged up a point to six percent, while satisfaction ratings for Sargent jumped by seven percentage points to 43%. This is Sargent's best performance in four years and lifts him off the bottom, ahead of Enda Kenny and Michael McDowell, in the leaders' popularity league table.

The increase will be interpreted by the party as a vote of confidence in the tough and consistent line of questioning Sargent and the Greens took in the Dail during the recent government crisis.

At seven percent in Dublin, their support level is close to the eight persent the party got in 2002 which allowed it to win five seats in the capital with less than four full quotas.

That seven-percent figure suggests the Greens will be doing well to hold those five seats.

The Greens continue to attract largely urban support, with just three percent of rural voters favouring the party.

However, the better news for the Greens is that Sargent's personal satisfaction ratings are almost the same in urban and rural areas.

Sinn Fein, meanwhile, remains at eight percent, just over a point up on its 2002 general election showing, suggesting that predictions a couple of years back of sweeping gains in the next election were premature.

On the positive side for the party, there was a rise of four percentage points in the satisfaction rating of party leader Gerry Adams, to 45%, and a considerable drop in the number of voters dissatisfied with his performance.

The party continues to attract good support from younger voters, especially in the 18-24 age group, which augurs well for its future performance. However, party strategists will be aware that voters in this age category are traditionally less likely to vote than older people.

At 13% in Connacht-Ulster, Sinn Fein is well placed to challenge strongly for seats in both Donegal constituencies. But this poll, along with last month's Sunday Tribune/Millward Brown IMS poll, shows that SF has failed to build on its Dublin vote, where it hopes to at least double its current two seats.

Independents/Others continue to perform strongly, edging up a point to 10%, close to the 11% of the vote they gained at the 2002 general election which returned 14 deputies.

The poll shows that Independents are attracting similar levels of support across all age groups (apart from over65s) and all social classes.

They are particularly strong in Munster and and ConnachtUlster. However, their support in Connacht-Ulster has fallen from the near 16% that Independents/Others attracted in the 2002 general election.




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