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Half believe Ahern was wrong, but less than a third say he should go
Shane Coleman Political Correspondent



ALMOST half of the electorate do not believe Bertie Ahern's explanation of how he came to receive money from friends and businessmen in the early 1990s, and 55% of them believe Ahern was wrong to accept the money in the first place, the Sunday Tribune/Millward Brown IMS poll reveals.

The electorate is divided pretty evenly as to whether or not to believe the Taoiseach's account, with 46% responding that they did not believe him, 44% stating that they did and 10% saying they either didn't know or didn't have an opinion.

Males, those from Munster, Fine Gael or Labour voters and those in the skilled working-class category were most likely to be sceptical . . . as were younger voters, with just 37% of those aged 18 to 24 believing him.

The older the voter, the more likely he or she is to believe Ahern's account. Farmers and people in Connacht/Ulster were also more likely to accept the explanation. Just under seven in 10 Fianna Fail supporters believed the Taoiseach's explanation, compared to 18% of Labour voters.

While a majority of voters said he was wrong to take the money, a not inconsiderable 42% gave at least tacit approval to the Taoiseach's decision.

A quarter of the electorate said straight out that the Taoiseach was right, while a further 17% said it "depends on the circumstances" . . .

the 42% figure coincidentally corresponding to Fianna Fail's current support levels.

The levels of don't knows/no opinions was particularly low at just three percent, a reflection of the huge publicity generated by the controversy.

Men, middle-class voters, Labour and Fine Gael voters and those from Munster took a tougher line on Ahern's decision. Against that, slightly under four-in-10 of Fianna Fail supporters believe he was right to accept the money, with a further 24% saying it depended on the circumstances.

Just 37% of Fianna Fail supporters stated outright that it was wrong.

However, despite this criticism of his decision in the 1990s, and of his explanations in recent weeks, fewer than three-in-10 voters believe Ahern should have resigned. In contrast, two-thirds of the electorate said that the Taoiseach should not have resigned, including 89% of Fianna Fail supporters and 74% of those over 65. Again Munster voters were more likely to take a harder line, with 36% of them saying he should have gone compared to just 22% in Connacht/ Ulster. A surprising 45% of Fine Gael supporters backed his decision to stay compared to just 29% of Labour voters.

Despite criticism of his handling of the controversy . . . his first major test as Tanaiste . . . Michael McDowell's decision not to withdraw the PDs from government has also received the backing of the electorate. Just 30% said McDowell should have pulled out, while a clear majority, 56%, endorsed his decision to stay put.

The decision was backed by 70% of PD supporters and 77% of Fianna Fail voters.

Despite McDowell's reputation as the rottweiler of Irish politics, he still has some way to go to match former PD leader Mary Harney when it comes to being a good watchdog, the poll suggests. Asked which one of the PD leaders has better enforced ethical standards when in government with Fianna Fail, 34% opted for Mary Harney, 18% chose Des O'Malley, who served in government with Fianna Fail between 1989 and 1992, and just 12% chose McDowell.

However, he has served only a month in the job compared to nine years for Mary Harney and, among PD supporters, the justice minister just edged out his predecessor, with 30% of PD voters choosing McDowell as the better enforcer of ethical standards compared to 29% for Harney.




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