FOR AN opposition desperately in need of inspiration, Fine Gael and Labour might do well by looking at the succession stakes in Fianna Fail. As today's opinion poll in this newspaper shows, Bertie Ahern remains Fianna Fail's biggest asset going into next year's general election.

But we know that Ahern, if he's returned for a third term, will not serve out his full five years as Taoiseach. He's already done a Tony Blair and told us he'll be gone during the lifetime of the next Dail.

At what stage he bows out remains unclear, but it would be reasonable to speculate that Ahern will retire before the mid-term European and local elections in the summer of 2009. The voters like to give governments a bloody nose in mid-term contests and Ahern will probably not want to leave on the back of electoral defeat. The Fianna Fail-led coalition could then be led by Brian Cowen, Mary Hanafin, Micheal Martin or Dermot Ahern. Cowen remains the favourite.

Fine Gael and Labour might want to test out the public's attitude to the man from Offaly. The opposition parties need to gauge the 'face on the poster' effect should the current finance minister become Taoiseach. They need to know if Cowen puts fear into the hearts of the urban voters who increasingly determine the winners and losers in electoral contests. 'Vote for Bertie but you'll get Cowen' could be an interesting slogan.

Cowen's style of politics has been on view in the Dail chamber in recent weeks as he's taken the Order of Business on Thursday mornings. He's utterly dismissive of the opposition parties. He's disdainful of questions and verges on displaying an arrogance acquired only by those too long in power.

Bernard Durkan was one of those who found himself at the end of Cowen's biting tongue last week. The Fine Gael TD asked about proposed legislation and the price of energy. Cowen rose from his seat . . . buttoning and unbuttoning his jacket as he does when he speaks . . . and brought laughter from the government side with his reply.

"The Minerals Development Bill will be introduced in the middle of next year. If the deputy knows anywhere where we can get gas for nothing, he should give me a shout so I can contact Bord Gais Eireann."

Cowen's attitude is in sharp contrast to the nonconfrontational approach adopted by Ahern. Naturally the Fianna Fail backbenchers love it. But would the public? The finance minister may be among the brightest of his generation. He may be a formidable politician. But would the public take to Cowen's gruffness?

Negative campaigning has never really been a feature of Irish elections, although Fianna Fail did scaremonger about Mary Robinson's socialism during the 1990 presidential contest. But, just maybe, a focus on who will actually lead the next government if Fianna Fail are in power . . . Ahern or Cowen? . . . might turn the election debate towards the Kenny-Rabbitte alliance. Certainly, with opinion poll results like those published today, the opposition cannot rule out any option that helps to keep Election 2007 alive as a real contest.

IT WAS as if with one eye on that electoral contest that Enda Kenny seemed like a man testing out campaign slogans in the Dail last Wednesday morning. Government overspending showed a "taste for waste" while a lack of progress in delivering health services left patients with "no sanction, no choice, no chance". The Fine Gael leader could have added that, due to government's ineptness in ordering the agenda of the Dail last week, the politicians were left with "no business".

Well-oiledGreenmachine ONE of the few pieces of work done in the Dail last week concerned statements of the recently published Green paper on energy. Suddenly energy has raced up the political agenda. Fiona O'Malley was honest enough to admit why. "From my experience canvassing in Dun Laoghaire, people are beginning to ask about energy, even if only because of the bills they are getting, " the PD TD said.

Self-interest or not, Eamon Ryan's warning was wider than the latest bills to land through the letterbox.

"This is pushing our planet into potentially catastrophic climate change, " the Green Party politican said of the threat of global warming.

T1he Greens . . . who celebrate their 25th birthday next month . . . may benefit if the public is genuinely concerned about environmental matters.

Reliable sources in the two big parties say their private polling shows the Greens doing well in Wicklow (Deirdre de Burca), CarlowKilkenny (Mary White), Galway West (Niall O Brolchain) and Dublin North Central (Bronwen Maher). Expect to hear plenty from Fianna Fail about muesli eaters over the coming months.