DECLAN KIDNEY was playing the poor mouth routine at the Heineken Cup launch at Twickenham during the week. "Just to get out of our pool this year would be huge, " the Munster coach told the assembled media, and you were only waiting for him to bring up the potato famine and the War of Independence as excuses as to why his side are going to find it tough this season. It's a well-worn routine at this stage and it will be intriguing to watch Kidney's attempts to manoeuvre his European champions into the role of underdog over the course of the season.
That, of course, is just one of the numerous fascinations we have to look forward to over the next eight months, or more accurately, the upcoming four months when most of the action takes place. While the reams of statistics provided by ERC Rugby promise us, as they seem to do every year, the biggest and brashest competition to date, there's a slightly odd feel to the 12th running of the best club competition in world rugby. It all stems from the upcoming World Cup, a tournament that has international unions, club owners, coaches and players in something of a tizzy for many varying reasons. The unions, of course, want access to their top players in the run up to the tournament, while the club owners, principally in England and France, are keen to get their full money's worth from their reasonably well paid employees.
The compromise appears to come in the form of compensation payments from the unions to the clubs, money that grants the international coaches more time with their players. The long and the short of it is that the top players in England and France will be battered from pillar to post over the next 12 months, for both club and country, which brings us back to the clubs and their true focus this season. With a lot of tired players on their hands, will the emphasis be success in Europe or ensuring that they keep their head above water in domestic competition?
In England that could go either way, depending on the club, but in France you'd have to imagine Le Championnat will be where the intentions of most clubs lie. Some of our Gallic cousins have already been resting players because of the marathon season ahead.
Toulouse, Biarritz and Stade Francais have all sent out weakened teams in league matches and the only ones who've gotten away with it are the Parisians who appear to have more strength in depth than the other two highfliers. We're not trying to suggest that we'll see below full-strength French sides in Europe but if the likes of Toulouse or Biarritz were to lose an early fixture, they mightn't break their backs to work their way back into the tournament.
At any rate, Toulouse don't appear to be the same side they were a couple of years back and in a tricky pool with Ulster, Llanelli and London Irish, their European hopes could be over by the end of the pool stages. Agen, Castres, Bourgoin and Perpignan will be difficult to beat but there are no potential champions amongst that lot, and while Biarritz should top Pool 6 without too much bother, their title credentials will depend on how kind the draw is to them later in the tournament. Stade Francais look the best bet from France, but they've choked on more than one occasion in the past when the trophy's been within grasp. They are French, after all.
In England, despite the undoubted competitiveness of the Guinness Premiership, there's no truly outstanding team waiting to be shot down. Wasps should win Pool 1 but they're nowhere near the side that conquered all on the continent with Warren Gatland in charge. In saying that, they still have strongest one to 15 on paper in the Premiership. The likes of Gloucester, Sale, Leicester and Northampton all find themselves in extremely challenging pools, and all things being equal, there's a strong chance that none of the foursome will finish top. At least two of quartet though, most likely Northampton and Leicester, are a good bet to fill the best runners-up slots but the resulting away quarter-final could bring an end to two-thirds of the English challenge before it has even got a chance to get going.
The three Italian sides are going nowhere again this season and the same can be said for the vast majority of our Celtic cousins. The Borders will be exposed as being out of their depth at this level of competition and while Edinburgh will cause problems in a tricky pool with Leinster and Gloucester, they're unlikely to qualify for the quarter-finals. As for the Welsh, Cardiff will be competitive but in a pool with Munster and Leicester, you just can't see them sweeping all before them and topping the pool. Especially not with their reputation for being a very inconsistant outfit.
The Ospreys are in a similar situation, landed as they are in a pool with Sale and Stade Francais, and despite all the quality they have at their disposable there's still something that doesn't add up about them. The only ray of hope in the Principality stems from the Llanelli Scarlets. They've been the best team in the Magners League to date and with Phil Davies promoting a high-risk, out-of-the-tackle style of rugby, they're capable of hurting most teams. They're well capable of being a surprise winner of Pool 5 and after that, with the excellent Welsh duo of Stephen Jones and Dwayne Peel steering the ship, who knows?
Which brings us back to the Irish challenge. First of all, none of the Irish provinces will suffer from the competition prioritisation that the English and French clubs may have to go through over the course of the season.
The Heineken Cup is the be all and end all for the Irish provinces and it could make a difference. But even taking that into account, it's difficult to see Ulster emerging from Pool 5, despite the vast improvements they've made over the past 18 months or so. They're certainly more streetwise than they've been in previous years but teams rarely go from zero to hero in the Heineken Cup. A significant away win this year, and they'll be in a far better position next season to mount a challenge at the serious end of the competition.
Leinster, meanwhile, find themselves in that position right now. Michael Cheika's side dispelled a few rugby myths last season, principally that forwards win rugby matches and backs decide by how much. They have a stunning propensity for scoring tries off first phase and on the back of that, they proved last season that they don't need oceans of quality possession to put teams to the sword. Of course, they have their bad days when they look disjointed and disorganised but the key thing for Leinster this season is that they grind out results when their rugby isn't flowing as easily as they might like. While they couldn't manage that against the Borders on Friday, if they figure out how to win playing poorly over the coming months, they have a genuine chance in this competition.
As do Munster. They need to embrace the favourites tag now being foisted upon them and not shy away from it. Their formidable pack, and the control exerted by Peter Stringer and Ronan O'Gara at half-back, will drive them forward and in Trevor Halstead and Barry Murphy they have a wonderfully balanced midfield. Their slow start to the season is a genuine worry, particularly the listless defeats to Leinster and Edinburgh, but we'll put that down to the fact that they've only been playing together for three weeks now.
With their Heineken Cup heads on, they'll be a threat.
So we'll narrow it down to Munster, if they ever click, a more consistent Leinster, Stade Francais, Biarritz and at an outside bet, Wasps. One key thing to remember . . . the final is set for Twickenham, practically a home venue for the two Irish teams. It could make all the difference in a tight decider.
FIVE-STAR GAMES . . . THE ONES TO WATCH LEINSTER v GLOUCESTER Lansdowne Road, 21 October 2006 It's difficult to think of two more enterprising and exciting outfits than these two at this moment in time. Although Gloucester are that little bit more structured than Leinster, they do like to throw caution to the wind at times, while Michael Cheika's side like to play the game fast and loose. Could be an extremely memorable, highscoring affair.
PERPIGNAN v LONDON WASPS Stade Aime Giral, 28 October 2006 There are few more intimidating venues in Europe than Perpignan's home patch, but Wasps know how to win there.
Their 36-6 victory over the French side back in 2004 remains one of the competition's most impressive results, but you can be certain a passionate home crowd will want revenge two years down the line.
TOULOUSE v LONDON IRISH Stade Ernest Wallon, 29 October 2006 London Irish have come a long way under Brian Smith and Toulouse away from home will prove a big test of their counterattacking abilities. The French side proved last year with their defeat against Leinster that they are troubled by teams with pace and the visitors could capitalise.
Will be a fascinating encounter.
STADE FRANCAIS v SALE SHARKS Stade Jean Bouin, 12 December 2006 Teams always find it tough to win in Paris, but if any English team are equipped to do it, it's Sale . . .
that little French enclave outside Manchester. Philippe SaintAndre's side are loaded with Gallic talent, including manmountain Sebastien Chabal, and it will be fascinating to see if they do a job on France's leading side.
MUNSTER v LEICESTER Thomond Park, 19/20/21 January 2007 What can we say about this one.
Over the past few years Munster have, thanks to TV scheduling, played their final pool game at home against an English side and they've always been special occasions. Think Gloucester back in January 2003, or Sale last season and you'll understand why we're looking forward to this occasion already.
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