The dramatic drop in Fine Gael's support in just five weeks . . . particularly in Dublin and urban areas . . . was such that the 13/8 odds currently being quoted by the bookies on Enda Kenny becoming the next Taoiseach look like pretty bad value.

There are two ways of looking at the poll result. Either Bertiegate caused people to focus their attention on who they wanted as Taoiseach, and they didn't particularly like the cut of Enda Kenny's jib. Or it was just a temporary boost prompted by sympathy for Bertie Ahern's plight.

Clearly, the first scenario would be a lot more worrying for Fine Gael, but there isn't much comfort for the main opposition party either way.

This column has pointed out before how massive a gap Fine Gael must bridge to win power at the next general election.

Such was the level of the Fine Gael wipeout in 2002, that it and Labour need to win the best part of 30 seats to be in a position to form the next government. That scale of seat gain has never been achieved in the history of the state. Some observers have recalled the 1981 election when Garret FitzGerald overturned a 20-seat Fianna Fail majority to win power. Undoubtedly, that was quite an achievement, but the circumstances today are entirely different.

That 1981 election coincided with an increase in TD numbers from 148 to 166. So, rather than having to unseat sitting FF deputies, Fine Gael in the main had to win the new seats on offer. Secondly, just eight TDs outside the big three parties were elected in 1981, compared to over 33 in the last election. This increased diversity in the Dail reduces the pool of seats on offer, and means that Fine Gael cannot bank on exclusively benefiting from an electoral swing away from the government as it did 25 years ago.

Thirdly, in 1981, the outgoing Fianna Fail government didn't have billions to give away in social welfare and childcare increases, tax cuts and SSIA bonuses in the run-up to the election, as the current coalition does.

And finally, the Taoiseach whom Fine Gael was opposing was Charlie Haughey, a highly divisive figure who alienated many voters. It is no coincidence that Fine Gael's best-ever electoral performances came while Haughey was leader of Fianna Fail (although FitzGerald's popularity was clearly a vital factor too).

Enda Kenny, meanwhile, has to deal with Bertie Ahern, not only the most politically savvy leader since de Valera, but also hugely popular with the electorate. Even if the latest surge in support for Ahern was down to a temporary wave of sympathy, it still serves to underline just how formidable an opponent the Taoiseach will be in what is likely to be close to a presidential contest next summer.

In order to defy history and the odds and pull off the seemingly impossible, Fine Gael and Labour need everything to go their way over the next seven months.

So the fact that Ahern emerged not only unscathed but enhanced (even if it does prove to be largely temporary) from events that at one point threatened to bring down his government, must have set alarm bells ringing among Fine Gael strategists. As must the recent constituency polls which fail to give any support whatsoever to Fine Gael's claims that it can win 60 seats in the general election.

The other worry for Fine Gael must be that, even if the opinion polls were only capturing how voters were feeling at a moment in time, they become a self-fulfilling prophecy . . . voters, on hearing the poll results, start to again believe that there is no alternative to Fianna Fail, and all the genuinely good work done by Enda Kenny over the past four years unravels.

In the national interest, it has to be hoped that this isn't the case. Democracy requires a strong opposition with a reasonable chance of unseating the government, so it is a concern that it is now a quarter-of-a-century since Fine Gael last won a general election. Bar the cock-up that allowed Fine Gael to slip in by the back-door for two-and-a-half years in the mid-1990s, Fianna Fail has been in power for the past 20 years. And now that it is comfortable with the notion of coalition government, it can potentially stay there indefinitely unless there is a strong and vibrant main opposition party.

If the opinion polls continue to show Fine Gael and Labour at a combined 30%, and we have another election campaign like that of 2002, then we are effectively living in a one-party state (1.1 or 1.2 parties to be exact) where the only question is which of the smaller parties . . . the PDs, Labour, the Greens or even, one day, Sinn Fein . . .

end up in government with Fianna Fail.

Hardly a desirable state of affairs.

Unless governments are genuinely afraid of being punished on election day for blowing 50m on electronic voting; dithering for years over building a new airport terminal or a metro in Dublin or failing to tackle vested interests in the health service, then there is a much greater risk of them repeating those failings.