"I am now very much a longshot, " said Harrington yesterday, typically honest, typically downbeat. "It's never been the happiest of hunting grounds for me. My best performance there was last year when I finished seventh and I can't deny that a good result for me next week would be top 10. And that wouldn't be good enough."

Indeed, it wouldn't. If Harrington's doomed mission to the Balearic island did one thing for a race the European Tour was praying would be nailbiting, it was making the maths blessedly simple. To be sure, the Dubliner must take the near 750,000 first prize; Paul Casey's placing would be inconsequential then. Should Harrington finish second or third, however, it would be in the young Englishman's assured hands.

Casey's to win, Casey's to lose.

Admittedly, there are a few invariables to be mindful of here. Namely the big, lurking one of Robert Karlsson.

The Swede could leapfrog Harrington into second and into the role of main challenger should he prevail in today's final round of the Mallorca Classic. Also, victory at Valderrama for David Howell would likely see England's quiet man sneak in. In truth, though, most believe that it is that nation's coming man who will be crowned this week.

And nobody believes it more fervently than Colin Montgomerie.

There is not another golfer alive - or dead - who knows more about winning Order of Merits in southern Spain than Montgomerie. The rumour that the Andalucian Tourist Board has been considering renaming the area, "the Costa Del Col" has been gaining credence by the year.

To Montgomerie the battle to be next up on his throne is rather straightforward.

"It's over, " he said after Harrington's humbling. "If I was a gambling man, I'd be sticking houses on Casey. Out of my eight Order of Merits, seven came when I've been leading going into Valderrama. There was only one where I was behind Sam Torrance and then I managed to pull it right out of the bag at the end. It's difficult to come from behind in golf, more so at Valderrama, where the fairways are tight and it's almost impossible to attack without coming a cropper.

Yes, Casey will be a very worthy successor."

Montgomerie believes he will a be a long-lasting one.

The burly Scot is renowned for uttering an incontrovertible truth one minute, and a wholly contradictory one the very next, and it should be remembered that it was only three months ago when Montgomere declared that of all the Europeans - himself withstanding, of course - Harrington was the most likely to end the seven-year major drought. But now, his switching of allegiance to Casey does seem genuine, as does his reason for it.

"Paul has the huge asset over most Europeans in that he hits the ball an awful long way, " he said. "There's no course in the world getting shorter and the greatest asset these days is length. So Paul is the most likely to succeed in major golf. I am not saying Luke [Donald] won't because he is a great golfer and so are David Howell, Sergio [GarcIa] and Padraig. But, in my opinion, Casey has the most potential."

Montgomerie is not alone among the European heavyweights in believing this. The world must have worked out by now that Ian Woosnam is not one for the grand statement but he is not shy in announcing his admiration of the odds-on favourite from Cheltenham. "I think a number of the guys on my team will go on to win majors and Paul is at the forefront of them, " he said. "He's had an unbelievable year when he has picked up the form again that strangely left him last year. He's been amazingly consistent throughout 2006.

He's got it all and deserves this Order of Merit.

"You know, I was about the same age as he is (29) when I won my first Order of Merit and what it gave me was tremendous belief in myself. It was a real stepping stone into the big time. Its effect on him, or on Padraig, David, Robert, or whoever wins it, should not be underestimated."