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From Troubles to bubbles
George McManus



BELFAST's and Northern Ireland's most dangerous killing zone during the Troubles is now potentially the best region for southern property investors.

Professor Alastair Adair, author of the quarterly property reviews from the University of Ulster, believes north Belfast provides the greatest long-term investment for investors.

A quarter of all the deaths in the Northern conflict occurred in the area from 1969. But Adair believes the north of the city is about to take off.

Compared to other parts of Belfast, the north is the poor relation when it comes to property prices. The average house price in north Belfast is £112,225 compared to £188,149 in the affluent south and £184,500 in the east. Even in west Belfast, the centre of armed republicanism, property prices are higher than the north's at £136,537.

With a political agreement in sight, however, and new developments about to take shape, house prices north of the River Lagan towards the Cavehill are about to soar, predicts Adair.

"North Belfast has always had the lowest prices because it is a series of sectarian interfaces. Now that the Troubles appear to be finally over and new investment is flooding into the area I would argue that for people looking for an opportunity to make money, they should look north, " he says.

Because north Belfast offers the most affordable properties, it is best placed as an investment opportunity, Adair argues.

"First-time buyers for instance are being priced out of the market in the south and east of the city. They too will look north and as they move in the prices will rise now that north Belfast is no longer seen as a danger zone. Our department believes strongly that there is going to be a big surge in north Belfast over the next five years, " he contends.

The irony is that the main development driving north Belfast's regeneration will be one of the symbols of the Troubles . . . Crumlin Road jail and courthouse.

The Victorian prison has housed some of the most infamous paramilitaries in Northern Ireland. It was the location for the hanging of IRA man Tom Williams during the second world war and the place where hundreds of republicans and loyalists were held on remand between 1969 to the mid 1990s. The jail was the scene of mass escapes including the IRA breakout in 1981 and home for those accused of terrorism by a series of socalled supergrasses in the early '80s.

Directly across the road is the courthouse where thousands were jailed in special courts. Linking the prison and court was an underground tunnel that is soon to become a tourist attraction.

Bought in the late 1990s first by Ewart Properties and then by local entrepreneur Barry Gilligan, the defunct prison and courthouse is being regenerated. The jail is set to be transformed into a hotel, with extra space around the former prison estate earmarked for private properties.

The multi-million-pound investment is expected to have a knock-on impact on the north Belfast property market as the nearby army barracks at Girdwood is handed over by government for housing land.

"This key development will play a leading role in boosting confidence in north Belfast making it a far more attractive place to live and work in, " Adair adds.

Commercial prospects Paradoxically while new private investment is raising expectations even in places like war-ravaged north Belfast (which is still scarred by dozens of 'peace walls' separating Protestant and Catholic communities) part of the commercial market in the city is expected to dip sharply.

The office market across Belfast is set to take a knock due to the British government's review of the North's bloated public sector.

"Workplace 2010 aims to reduce the size of the government estate by that year. The number of offices rented by government departments is scheduled to be dramatically reduced and that means there will be a gap in the office rental market in Belfast, with a lot of empty space.

"While residential properties are climbing and will continue to climb, the office market is going to take a hit, " Adair says.

In south Belfast, independent mortgage advisers say that their part of the city is becoming more like Dublin and London. House prices are now out of the reach of the first-time buyer, they say. Rosaleen Crawford of the Mortgage Shop on the Ormeau Road, one of the main thoroughfares in the south of the city, says the alternative are areas just outside the Belfast boundary within commuting distance of the city centre.

"There has also been a high demand for properties for second-time buyers and investors from the Republic who have been attracted by our relatively low prices, " she says.

Crawford says that Buy To Let mortgages are readily available now with a deposit of only 10%. But she stresses the point that to buy in the North entails opening up a UK bank account. "We have seen a high demand for Buy to Let mortgages from both the professional landlord and those wishing to enter this market for the first time, all of which are helping to drive up house prices."

There is one added x-factor that all the experts agree is likely to increase house prices, particularly in south and east Belfast. Houses closer to the city's best grammar schools are likely to become even more expensive than others.

Even though the British government has promised to preserve some form of academic selection if the Northern parties sign up to the St Andrews Agreement, access to places at grammar schools will in part depend on proximity to them in the future.

"People are already paying higher prices because their houses are near to prestigious grammar schools like Methody. This has been happening across the Irish Sea in cities like Manchester where, for example, houses near Altrincham Grammar, one of the few schools that is prestigious but not private, are much higher in value than those in other middle-class areas of the city.

It's the postcode lottery and its coming to Northern Ireland soon, " says Adair.




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