"The longest notice period in Irish political history, " was the wry assessment of one longstanding Fianna Fail deputy. Another was more blunt. "If Bertie rang and offered me the job, I'd tell him to bugger off, " this rural TD said, halfjokingly, although in fairness this person would not be on any serious list of possible appointees.

The comment, however, represents a weariness in Fianna Fail circles with the de Valera saga combined with a widespread exasperation with the Taoiseach's appointments policy.

It is now 12 months since de Valera announced her intention to stand down from national politics. An embarrassing tussle followed with the Clare TD apparently unwilling to let go of her ministerial job and Bertie Ahern seemingly unprepared to tell her the position would be more usefully done by a TD who was actually contesting the next general election. Now, whichever TD gets the nod will hardly have six months in the post before the general election campaign gets under way.

"Let's be honest. Whoever gets the job is not going to change the world in six months, " a seasoned backbencher admitted. The truth is even more stark: no matter how long most junior ministers have in their departments, they have little chance of changing their constituency not to mind 'changing the world'.

Few junior ministers have real jobs. They have little independence within their departments. They do not control their own budgets.

They have what is grandly described as "special responsibility" over a specific policy area but in truth they cannot initiate many policy changes as they have neither the power nor the authority to do so. Indeed, when their responsibilities actually do become newsworthy, junior ministers will frequently be pushed sideways by the senior minister in the department. The reality is that their workload is largely determined at the whim of their senior colleagues.

Few could list the junior ministers There are a few exceptions. Tom Parlon at the Office of Public Works and Conor Lenihan, who has responsibility for Overseas Development Aid, are in two jobs that have traditionally been seen as having some authority and scope for independent decision-making. In recent times, Brian Lenihan has carved out a niche as minister for children, having had specific responsibilities brought together under one heading in the childcare area. Tom Kitt as government chief whip gets to sit at cabinet, although this is largely an administrative job. But these four positions are very much the exceptions among the 17 junior ministerial jobs in the current government.

Few political commentators . . . not to mind members of the public . . . could easily rattle off the names and responsibilities of these 17 ministers of state. For the record: Noel Treacy has responsibility for European Affairs; John Browne for the marine; Frank Fahey for equality issues;

Michael Ahern for trade and commerce; Sean Power for health promotion; Tony Killeen for labour affairs; Brendan Smith for food and horticulture; Batt O'Keeffe for environmental protection; Mary Wallace for forestry; Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher for traffic management in Dublin, road haulage and the Irish Aviation Authorit; Sile de Valera for adult education and youth affairs;

Tim O'Malley for disability, mental health and food safety; and Noel Ahern for housing and urban renewal as well as for drug strategy and community affairs. The Lenihan brothers, Parlon and Kitt make up the 17.

There is no doubt that all these politicians have busy work agendas and diaries full of official engagements. But attending openings and delivering speeches are poor substitutes for handson, agenda-setting responsibility. Indeed, the word responsibility is stretched to the extreme when applied to the authority that junior ministers have. The cabinet is where real power lies in the political system. Junior ministries are a step up from the wilderness of the backbenches. These half-ministers get a whiff of the smell of power, a pay increase and a driver.

They do, however, get to project themselves in their constituency. A higher profile is a key benefit of being a minister of state. A meritocracy the appointment system is not. Geography is probably the real determinant of how junior ministerial positions are allocated. Having filled the cabinet positions, the Taoiseach of the day will hand out junior ministries to those disappointed not to have got a senior post and then to constituencies not represented at the cabinet table.

Working out how ministerial preferment has been determined can often be a tortuous process, and this has been especially so during Bertie Ahern's term as Taoiseach. Ahern likes his TDs to have served a long political apprenticeship before they are considered for promotion. Fianna Fail had 16 brand new TDs elected in 1997 and 19 of the party's TDs were new deputies in 2002.

Yet, looking at the current cabinet, only one of the 12 Fianna Fail ministers was elected in either of these two elections under Ahern's leadership (Mary Hanafin in 1997). Eamon O Cuiv is the only minister who was elected in 1992 . . . every other Fianna Fail minister in the current cabinet was elected at one of the five general elections in 1980s.

New TDs face years in the backbenches The promotion situation is even worse in the junior ranks. Fifteen of the 17 ministers of state are Fianna Fail TDs. Like their senior counterparts, most junior ministers promoted under the Ahern regime were first elected two decades ago.

Conor Lenihan is the only one of the 16 new TDs elected in 1997 who has secured a junior position, although his brother Brian was elected at a by-election in 1996. None of the class of 2002 has yet left the backbenches.

The frustration is obviously having an impact, considering Jim Glennon's decision to stand down as a TD for Dublin North after a single Dail term. This group of newer Fianna Fail TDs with stunted career paths can only look with envy at the very different situation in the PDs. Tom Parlon and Tim O'Malley were first elected to the Dail in 2002. Both were immediately appointed as junior ministers.

So given his form to date, the Taoiseach is unlikely to break his established habit and fill the de Valera vacancy from the group of newer TDs in his parliamentary party. Plenty of names are being tossed around but Sean Haughey would seem the obvious choice. The Dublin North Central was very disappointed earlier this year at seeing Mary Wallace appointed to the vacancy created by Ivor Callely's resignation.

Government sources said the Taoiseach has already decided who will be promoted. But there is a weary acknowledgment in Fianna Fail ranks that, when it comes to appointments, Ahern is never the easiest to second-guess. "If Sean isn't getting the job then they should say it now so he's not strung along again, " one Dublin TD said this weekend before adding, "but with Bertie you never can tell."