despite all the political debate, we will not know what, if anything, is to happen to stamp duty until budget day. The Minister for Finance is keeping his cards close to his chest but he is reported as having said his inclination would be not to interfere with the property market. This would suggest he does not intend to repeat previous mistakes. When the changes were introduced in December 2004 the only people who benefited were the vendors as prices shot up about 20,000 overnight.

However, the minister is facing an election year with a young population and there is a chance there may be some sweetener, such as indexing the thresholds or an increase in tax relief, in the pipeline.

I have no doubt that if the thresholds are increased there will be a corresponding increase in prices. First-time buyers operate within tight budgetary constraints and the majority of their money goes to either the Revenue or the vendor. If stamp duty is reduced they are likely to use any extra funds to buy the property and are unlikely to see any direct benefit.

Although price increases have slowed down there is no sign of them stopping.

Increases for first-time buyers were running at 0.7% in September according to the latest house price index. On a property for 400,000 that could mean an increase of 8,400 in just three months.

Regardless of what happens in the budget, another cause for concern is the likelihood that January will see the return of most of those buyers who have been holding off coming back into the market. This may cause increased demand and push prices up even further. The benefit of the current sluggish market for buyers is that vendors are more open to offers and negotiation. Buyers who are actively out there looking may get a bargain as there's a good supply of houses and less competition.

First-time buyers also need to think about their buying power which is being reduced with each interest-rate increase. Another rate hike seems likely before Christmas. This would leave buyers with less to spend on a property that might well cost them more. This may be the case even if they have to pay less stamp duty or if there is increased competition or price increases.

Concerned potential buyers should also be aware that it can take a number of weeks of bidding before a sale is agreed and then a further three to four weeks before contracts are signed. Even if a sale is agreed tomorrow, any positive changes in the budget should work to a firsttime buyers advantage as long as they have not signed a contract or a deed before the budget . . . if they're still holding out for changes.

Tara Cosgrove is the principal of Property Locators 087-2276896 www. propertylocators. ie