LAST week's column ended with me saying that my pockets "should be weighed down or emptied in the coming days".
Help me carry the load, brother . . . it's been a damn fine week.
First up, last week's long bet on the Nasdaq. After pulling back to the 1700 area (where I entered), Monday saw the markets surge forward. Tuesday saw a further thrust to the 1750 area, where I sold half of my position (1750 is where the Nasdaq peaked back last May). This position alone has contributed almost 1,000 to the trading coffers . . . I'll take it.
Next in the profitability rankings, my good friends at Elan. I pointed out last week that the Elan chart is looking very dodgy indeed. Tuesday saw a brief price spike to the $15 area. The perfect short entry would have been at $15.20 (strong resistance) but I was surprised that the stock got as far as it did and couldn't resist going short at $14.90 (stop at $15.30). A day later and Elan had retreated back to $14.30, contributing more spondulicks to my favourite cause . . . the Market Monkey Trading Fund. I don't see any obvious support on the chart and would not be surprised to see the stock trickle down to the $13 area in the coming weeks. At the moment, I'm up 800 on my Elan short . . .
I'll take it.
Talking of good friends, where would I be without Apple? I love trading this stock.
Three weeks ago, great earnings saw the stock break out past its October high ($77.78). It continued north to $82.50 before retreating last week to the breakout area, which is where I got in (around $78, with a stop below $75). The stock hit a low of . . . wait for it . . . $77.79 (technical analysis in its purest form) before resuming its ascent.
I considered taking profits at the aforementioned $82.60 level, but I expect Apple to keep going for now and am resisting the temptation.
I'll take partial profits if it gets up to $85/86 (52week high).
I'm up another 800 here . . .
I'll take it.
My counter-trend long play in oil is also working out. At the time of writing, it sits at $60.50 (I bought in at $59). Last week saw me mention some technical signs that the price may be bottoming but the downtrend remains intact for now. Accordingly, I would look to sell half at $62, where strong resistance is evident. I'm up a more modest 300 on this position. Not that exciting, but still . . . I'll take it.
I closed out my IBM position at $93 on Tuesday. Why? Because following this sleepy stock bores the pants off me. Not the greatest of reasons, I know. Anyway, I made 500 since initiating this position a month ago . . . I'll take it.
It wasn't all sunshine this week. I suffered the maximum 600 loss on my Yahoo! short. I liked this set-up but a strong Nasdaq meant this one was an uphill battle from the moment of entry. I foresaw resistance at $26.70 and, indeed, this exact price rebuffed the bulls both last Friday and Monday, giving me a chance to cut my losses and get out near the breakeven point. I elected not to and ended up paying the price on Tuesday.
It's never easy to decide in these situations. The first law of trading is cutting/preventing losses, but one needs to give one's trades a little leeway also. The other reason for holding on to Yahoo! was to hedge against any downward movement in the Nasdaq (I like to have some kind of mixture of long and short positions at a given time and, with long positions in both the Nasdaq 100 and Apple, I didn't want to be too exposed to a market turn). In hindsight, however, I should probably have at least reduced my position when given the chance to do so.
I know that some readers will be puzzled by the absence of 'news' in my analysis of market matters. Why, for example, did the Nasdaq surge this week? What 'caused' Apple to rise? Why did Elan drop? Media commentators feel obliged to come up with explanations, so they attribute all kinds of explanations ("Apple executive gives upbeat talk on new iPod shuffle", "Positive Fed commentary sends market wild", that kind of thing).
Of course, it's usually tosh. On Wednesday, commentators wasted ink on why Donald Rumsfeld's resignation was a boost to markets. If markets fell, they would have attributed it to political uncertainty in the aftermath of the US election results.
Last week saw all this hoop-la about fears of an economic slowdown when participants had been just looking for an excuse to take some profits after the market's relentless climb. What changed this week?
There haven't been any earth-shattering developments. Markets are bullish because markets are bullish.
Apple, Elan, whoever . . . look at the technicals and you will find most of what you need to know.
Market movements are not random . . .
only silly finance professors think that.
They think technical analysis is astrology, but I don't mind. Trading is a zero-sum game. You could not buy Apple at $77.79 if some fool wasn't willing to sell it at that price. One man's losses are another man's gains. That's why I'm grateful to pompous academics . . . it's their money I'm taking.
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