With technical work under way, access to the site has been closed. Those logging on are presented with a smiling image of Enda Kenny and a sample of FG's new branding. Green will feature prominently in the new colour scheme while the slogan 'the United Ireland Party' made a brief appearance last Friday afternoon but disappeared yesterday.

It is not yet clear why Fine Gael feels it necessary to position itself so publicly in the nationalist space already occupied by Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail. But there are signs the party is asking itself some serious questions after a twomonth battering in the opinion polls.

The survey findings cannot be dismissed as evidence from a rogue poll or a statistical methodology that is not to Fine Gael's liking. The post-summer political season has produced seven opinion polls from four market research companies. All the results point in the same direction . . . Fianna Fail is on course for a third term in government, with the only uncertainty being the coalition partner for Bertie Ahern's party. But polls, as politicians on the rough end of poor results always say, are mere snapshots. The real voting has still to take place.

Looking at the political landscape, Fine Gael should probably turn rightwards. There may well be scope to expand the party's support by making it more attractive to PD voters and the sizable numbers of FF voters who think like PDs. But that would create a direct conflict with FG's potential coalition partners, the centre-left leaning Labour Party.

Of all the parties with the possibility of a place in the next government, Fine Gael actually has the fewest options. The party either leads a government involving Labour and other elements, or it remains in opposition. Fianna Fail will do deals with any one of the PDs, Labour and the Greens, and there are several independent TDs also on hand to prop up any Ahern-led minority coalition. Privately, Fine Gael sources acknowledge that if the alternative is not a runner, Labour will examine the option of government with Fianna Fail. So every other party has choices, but Fine Gael has only one. It's either make or break.

But the possible government that is presented to the people on polling day and the postelection government are two different things. Fine Gael and Labour will continue to roll out their joint policy strategies and Pat Rabbitte and Enda Kenny will be presented as the political alternative to Bertie Ahern and Michael McDowell. But after the election the battle will be over numbers in the Dail. Even if he doesn't get a majority for Fine Gael/Labour, Kenny could still be Taoiseach. This is because of what can be called the Abba strategy . . . 'Anyone But Bertie Ahern'. After the general election there is only one vote that counts . . . that which elects the next Taoiseach.

Kenny needs to look at the situation after the 1948 general election. Eamon De Valera had governed since 1932 and was only three votes from being returned as Taoiseach in 1948. However, the anti-Fianna Fail grouping in the Dail succeeded in getting John A Costello elected Taoiseach. It was the country's first coalition administration, although an aversion to the term 'coalition' . . . following a successful Fianna Fail campaign to blacken the concept . . . meant the label 'inter-party government' was applied.

Costello led a motley crew drawn from Fine Gael, Labour, National Labour, Clann na Poblachta, Clann na Talmhan and some independents.

Remarkably, the government worked well and remained in office until 1951. It is this that should give succour to Enda Kenny and his colleagues. Yes, Bertie Ahern appears like an electoral juggernaut and, yes, Fianna Fail has had it all its own way in the opinion polls.

But in a numerically fragmented political system, it is the votes in the post-election Dail chamber that count.

Between Fine Gael, Labour, the Greens and a sizeable group of independents it might still be possible to get Enda Kenny elected Taoiseach. Back in 1997 Fianna Fail won 77 seats. With the Greens included, John Bruton's Rainbow coalition of Fine Gael, Labour and Democratic Left also had 77 seats. The choices made by four PDs and a group of independents elected Ahern as Taoiseach and started his decade-long incumbency in power. But some smart negotiating and a little luck might well have led to another outcome, with Bruton remaining as Taoiseach.

Enda Kenny will have to get lucky but after the horrors of the last two months he may well be due some luck.