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When you know the Apple's ripe, sell it



SAME old tune this week . . . more new highs for the markets. It would be boring if I wasn't making money. But I am, so boredom doesn't enter the equation.

My long bet on the Nasdaq 100 worked out perfectly . . . in fact, a little too perfectly.

The second rule of trading is to let your profits run (the first is to cut your losses) but it's a rule I decided to break this Wednesday when I sold the remainder of my position just shy of the 1800 level.

Why? I can't rid my head of the thought that the Nas is very much ripe for a pullback. At the time of writing, it's up seven of the last eight sessions, or almost 6% in less than two weeks (that's a big move for an index, if not a stock). Of course, an overbought market can become more overbought but I thought it safer to take my profits.

Anyway, I'm not going to beat myself if I end up having sold too early. This has been a well-handled trade that has made me a pretty penny (in total, around 1,500, or 2.5 times my initial 600 risk).

The bigger picture remains bullish and I am looking to buy back in on any correction to the 1750 area. The Nasdaq 100's 20-day moving average has served as a notable support over the last few months . . . it's worth keeping a close eye on.

I also closed out my long position in oil after it hit my target price at the end of the previous week (total profit of around 600). This was a counter-trend trade that worked out. I had no qualms in pulling the plug on the trade because the bigger picture down-trend remains intact.

I wrote last week that I would sell half of my Apple position if the price made it to the $85-$86 area. Wednesday morning saw it sprint up to $86, where I should really have taken profits. Greed got the better of me and I held off on hitting the sell button.

Unfortunately (but predictably . . . Apple's all-time high is $86.40) the sellers drove the price back down to $85, where I promptly took some profits.

Still, having made around 1,300 in Apple over the last two weeks, this is not a time to be complaining. I'm pretty chuffed I resisted the temptation to sell half last week. I remember reading an interview with a trader who said that his biggest problem was in cutting his winners ("I hear music when the cash register rings, " as he poetically put it). Anyway, I can relate to that, but it's best to hold off on the music if your stock is positioned as bullishly as Apple was.

I certainly heard the sirens sing after selling at $85, but that's not why I sold. I sold because it made sense to reduce my position. I'm now in the happy position of being able to sit back and watch this trade without the butterflies tickling my insides.

If the stock breaks to new highs, great . . . I'll let my remaining profits run.

I'm still short Elan. The stock has climbed this week but I'm not unduly worried. That's not just because I'm up a few quid on my position . . . it's because the chart continues to hint at further downside. Still, it would have been prudent of me to take a partial profit when the price touched the $14 level last week. Each 40 cent move in the stock is worth 600 to me and I was a bit cocky in not reducing my exposure when the opportunity presented itself.

I haven't taken on any new positions this week, but that doesn't mean I haven't been busy on the trading front. Newbie traders obsess about entering a trade but, once in a trade, neglect to manage it properly. Do you have an exit point? Will you take partial profits at a given juncture? Where will you cut your losses? What will you do if the position isn't moving in either direction?

I'm not saying I have the 'right' answers to all these questions. My methodology is a work in progress. Not only that, I don't always stick to my rules (human nature being what it is, a situation unlikely ever be completely remedied).

Still, I attempt to be relatively systematic in my trading. I don't take trades where the risk outweighs the reward.

Generally, I will not risk a euro if the potential for gaining two is not obvious . . .

the Apple trade, where I set a target of a minimum gain of $7 per share against a maximum loss of $3 per share, is a perfect example. I try to identify an appropriate spot to take a partial profit; the rest I let run. If things are not proceeding as expected, I look to see if the trade should be closed out.

Risk, reward, probabilities . . . this is what trading is all about. It's not about staring into a crystal ball and predicting the future. It's not about getting a 'tip' from some geezer with supposedly 'inside info'.

OK, sermon over. After closing some bets this week, the monkey has some cash to play with and it's time to look for ideas.

What do I do if nothing jumps out at me?

Nothing. I'm doing this for the money, not the action. But hopefully, the coming week will bring a little of both.




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