England have won three matches, all dead rubbers, in the last four series in Australia, their opponents have won 13. The tourists seem prepared to go into the series with a late order which only the long-tailed tit would envy, the home side are properly balanced.

And yet, and yet. The mood in the tourists' camp is distinctly upbeat, fuelled by a few simple facts: they hold the Ashes, they need only draw the series to retain them and, significantly, only two of their probable side for the start have been tainted by previous defeat against Australia.

It may also be crucial that Australia are doing their level best to suggest that the pressure is on England. It is not; it is on Australia to regain something that they never imagined for more than a fleeting moment that they would lose.

Whatever they say, both teams have been waiting for this moment and this moment alone since the bails were ceremoniously removed at The Oval on 12 September 2005 to signal the end of the greatest test series of all. England, breathlessly, had won 2-1. It was imperative for Australia to respond by once more demonstrating their power.

They did so. Of the 12 tests they have played since, they have won 11 and drawn one, as if the result in England was some grotesque blip.

Such form has been a foreign country for England in a time that was supposed to be theirs. In the grand plan it was always intended that the team moulded principally under Duncan Fletcher would be approaching their peak by now, ready to prise the Ashes back. The tumultuous events of 2005 changed that.

Trouble is that the team Fletcher had in mind does not bear a strong relation to the team that will appear at the Gabba.

Three of the men he might have intended to be there are missing . . . vitally, the captain Michael Vaughan, Marcus Trescothick and Simon Jones - and a fourth, Ashley Giles, might not be selected.

The signs are that the series will be played out along familiar lines. Australia will attempt to bludgeon England into submission through weight of runs and then let loose the old warhorses, Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne. The latter remains a wizard. With 685 wickets he is the world's leading test wicket-taker and the probability is that sometime in the series he will become the first man to reach 700.

England insist that they can worry only about themselves.

There is enough to worry about.

If Stephen Harmison does not pull through his latest side strain it diminishes their attack.

Nobody should doubt the menace that Harmison poses for batsmen, fast with steep lift. But the batsmen have to score enough runs quickly enough to allow their bowlers time to secure the minimum two victories they need to retain the Ashes. They must not be bullied but they must not be reckless. They will need their top batsman, Kevin Pietersen, to fire in at least two matches.

They have a sneaking suspicion that Ian Bell's time is here. The bowling is less worrying than the batting, or the way it peters out. James Anderson may replace the reverse swing supplied by Simon Jones. But that tail. If Monty Panesar plays, as seems probable, they will effectively have four number eleven batsmen.

It is a time for hedge betting.

England have to leave Brisbane with something to get anything from the series. Then, there are all those ifs. But by the end of the fifth test in Sydney in early January before thousands of their own supporters England may well have retained the Ashes.