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Market Monkey



AFTER last week's blip, I've returned to winning ways. And I'm not talking hundreds. Money isn't everything but I have to admit I'm enjoying this stock market lark.

I've taken two new positions this week . . . long CRH and short SanDisk.

SanDisk has turned out to be one of those instantly profitable trades that brings a big smile to this smug monkey's face. The stock has been looking awful since reporting lousy earnings in October. It enjoyed a weak rally last week and, hoping to pro"t from a resumption of selling, I put in an order to sell on a break of last Friday's low point (underneath $47, stop loss order above $50).

Anyway, the market tanked on Monday. SanDisk continued to fall on Tuesday and Wednesday (despite the market regaining its footing). I sold half of my position at $44 (the stock's low this month).

SanDisk is a pretty volatile piece of stuff. If it were a woman, you'd be embarrassed to introduce her to your mother. It was trading at $65 in May before collapsing to $37 over the next two months. It then went all the way back up to $62 before taking another hammering over the last month. A fantastic shorting opportunity arose a month ago only I missed it, being too busy following IBM, the kind of snooze stock that mothers prefer (Mother Monkey, it's all your fault). SanDisk is currently oversold, but I'm hoping for further downside. In an overwhelmingly bullish environment, these guys have stuck out like a sore thumb. If the market does take a hit, it's unlikely to buck the trend.

CRH is a much more boring setup. A friend of mine was urging me to buy into the stock, droning on about how the company has expanded into the enormous Chinese building materials market and has undervalued property assets and is really worth 40 and how it's a likely target for one of those private equity firms that are taking over the world. I was ready to slam the phone down . . . I have no truck with this fundamental filth . . . until he urged me at least to take a look at the chart.

And what a pretty chart. The stock has spent the last few months in a trading range, being rebuffed on numerous occasions at the 28 mark. It "nally broke through over the last fortnight before retreating near the 30 level (all-time high).

When the stock came back to test the breakout point at 28, the monkey dived in. I'm expecting CRH to challenge the 30 area again. My stop is under the stock's 200-day moving average (under 27).

Unlike SanDisk, CRH isn't volatile.

That doesn't mean it can't be just as (or more) profitable. Each one move in the price is worth approximately 600 to me. I will sell half if it approaches the 30 area. Anything after that and I'll be laughing.

My Elan short returned to pro"tability this week. Despite last week's scare (my stop was just cents away from being hit), the chart looks like death to me. I'm still cursing that I didn't take profits when I had the chance a fortnight ago. If I did, I could have added to my short position last week without taking on too much monetary risk. I'll reduce my position if it heads down to around $14.10 (and I expect it will).

Apple continues to hit new highs.

This has been a big winner for me (bought at $78, sold half at $85; it currently sits at $92; total profits exceed 2000). To be honest, I'm itching to sell. A correction is overdue. 'Let your profits run' . . . it sounds easy but it's difficult as hell.

Still, I remind myself I have already taken partial profits and that a stock can always go higher than you think.

If it does pull back, I would look to add to my position around $86.50.

I've already alluded to the markets taking a walloping on Monday. The media, as usual, got it wrong, waxing on about the weak dollar and weak data from Walmart being responsible. Here are the facts. The S&P500 has risen by almost 15% over the past four months. During that time, it has not had a correction of as much as 2.5%. In fact, before Monday, it had been almost 100 days since the market had a day where it declined by more than 1%.

Regarding the dollar, could not one argue that a weak dollar increases US exports and the value of overseas profits? Walmart and dollar weakness were just excuses for some much overdue profittaking. No market can go up in a straight line. A correction is a healthy and necessary thing. All that surprises me is that the market rebounded so quickly over the following days. I considered buying into the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday but resisted the temptation. The S&P/Nasdaq may continue to go north, but I'd much prefer to see some money being flushed out of this market.

Whatever about the market, I'm hoping my balance will hit 35,000 in the next week or two. That will bring bigger bets (a per trade risk of about 700). Bring it on.

Weekly gain/loss: + 2000 Overall balance: 34,200




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