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Property storm leaves damp results
Valerie Shanley



"IT'S what economists call a 'perfect storm' . . . when a collection of powerful and negative factors come together at once." Austen Hughes of IIB Bank explains that the drop in house price inflation in the second half of 2006 is down to the culmination of factors that, if occuring in isolation, would perhaps not have had such a dampening effect.

"Where there had been buyer panic, there was buyer strike by autumn when the previous scarcity turned to a glut of property, " says Hughes.

"Over the summer, the European Central Bank began to speed up the interest rate increases, and such an acceleration began to instil caution.

This was something alien to those who had bought for the first time. Along with that, the fuel increases in the autumn further stopped people from entering the market . . . when people looked at the costs coming out of their bank account, a reality check emerged."

The final dampening was the anticipation of the budget, adds Hughes. There were intimations that there could possibly be an introduction of a property tax, and then there were the murmurings about changes in stamp duty.

Agents and economists differ on the figure, but most agree that house prices rose on average 12% for the year.

In January, predictions of 8% sounded healthy, but it soon became obvious that a single digit figure was conservative.

By the end of the first six months of trading, the Sherry FitzGerald Group reckoned that Dublin prices escalated by a sensational 21.2%. If it felt like inflation was orbiting somewhere round Mars, by October the market came crashing back to earth with the Permanent TSB/ERSI house price index reflecting a national increase of just 0.6% . . . a reduction in the rate of growth for the fifth successive month.

The average price paid nationally for a house in October was 309,963 . . . more than 32,000 higher than at the end of December 2005. Dublin prices, always higher than elsewhere, reflected an average price of 423,727 by October . . .

over 55,000 more expensive than at the start of the year ( 368,576).

Hughes agrees that there has been a significant change.

Autumn's stalling activity will have a substantial influence on 2007's property market.

"We could see a bit of struggle in the early part of 2007.

There is a polar change in climate . . . from being too hot in the first half of 2006, to a significant cooling in the second part of the year, all of which has a bearing on what happens in early 2007."

An OECD report in early autumn showed that Dublin real estate is more expensive per square metre than London, Zurich or Paris.

Perfect storms or not, what became obvious was that the first few months of the year were the time to sell in 2006.




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