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THE BIG QUESTION Will focus groups become a big in"uence on Irish politics?



Why is there a sudden obsession with focus groups?

RTE's Week in Politics last Sunday shone a light on one of the key research tools used by political parties, when the programme invited high-profile US polling guru Frank Luntz to test the impact of major speeches by the main party leaders on 30 speciallyselected uncommitted voters from Dublin, Meath and Kildare.

Are focus groups new to Irish politics?

Not at all. Fianna Fail, for example, has been using focus groups . . . along with qualitative and quantitative opinion polling . . . for the past decade, quickly realising their importance. Its 1997 election slogan, 'People Before Politics', was the product of focus group research. It was derided at first by some commentators but struck a chord with the electorate.

Renowned Washington media firm Shrum, Devine and Donilon was involved in that election campaign, advising on communications, focus groups and polling. By 2002, such research was a key weapon in Fianna Fail's armoury and the party used it brilliantly to hone its messages.

If anything, though, Ireland has come late to the phenomenon. New Labour has been a major user of focus groups and it, in turn, learned from Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign. The famous sign in Clinton's campaign headquarters, 'It's The Economy, Stupid', to remind staff to keep on message, was driven by research coming from focus groups.

It could also be argued that politicians have always used a form of focus groups to gauge public opinion. Every match, funeral, pub or cumann meeting a politician attended was used for that purpose. However, the reality is that most people, for reasons of politeness, don't tell politicians exactly what is on their mind. This process allows political parties to hear what people really think and what is important to them.

How important are focus groups to political parties?

Hugely. On the night of Fianna Fail's election victory in 2002, the one man to whom Bertie Ahern paid tribute, in full view of the TV cameras, was Peter MacDonagh, the party's boy wonder of polls and focusgroup interpretation. It was very unlike Ahern to single out an individual in that way . . . a clear signal of the vital role he felt MacDonagh had played in the campaign.

In Britain, the role of focus groups in the election of David Cameron as Conservative leader was enormous. Cameron might have won the leadership contest anyway, but there is no doubt that the positive reaction to him in a focus group organised by Frank Luntz (again) on BBC2's Newsnight ignited his campaign and propelled him ahead of his rivals.

Take it as read that, before launching any major policy document or advertising campaign, the big parties will first test the ideas involved on a focus group. If the reaction is negative, it will be back to the drawing board. It's also highly likely that focus groups were being held by Fianna Fail . . . and perhaps other political parties . . . all the way through the Bertiegate crisis.

It certainly was great TV, but how realistic was the focus group in the 'Week in Politics'?

There is no doubting Frank Luntz's credentials, and Fianna Fail's PJ Mara was quoted last week as saying that the research carried out by the programme was "nothing new" and "we are not unfamiliar with it." However, people familiar with how focus groups work had a few quibbles.

One was that the group in question was too large, increasing the risk that it could be led by one or two highly influential members. However, Luntz did appear to counter this by jumping quickly from person to person, not allowing any one member to dominate proceedings. There was also a suspicion that the presence of TV cameras might have influenced or restricted what some people said.

What criticisms are there of the use of focus groups?

One of the main criticisms is that politics becomes driven by focus groups, making politicians followers of public opinion rather than leaders. The counter-argument is that it would be elitist for politicians to ignore public opinion and that, in any democracy, it is healthy to gauge the reaction of the public . . . they are, after all, the people who elect the government.

Another criticism is that focus groups fail to take account of the uniquely local nature of Irish politics, in which every general election is really 43 mini-elections. While people may complain about Bertie Ahern or Enda Kenny, it won't stop them voting for the local Fianna Fail or Fine Gael candidate if they like him or her. This may be true, but focus groups are just one of several techniques available to political parties to test public opinion . . . voting intentions, for example, are obviously better assessed by standard opinion polling.

PJ Mara summed it up well when he said: "This is a really interesting way of measuring people's responses to the way public figures and ministers present themselves and their ideals. It is more of a measurement of how people communicate themselves and their ideas."

How influential was the 'Week in Politics' programme?

Potentially, very. For starters, viewership doubled for last Sunday's programme and it was the talk of Dail Eireann last week. The messages coming back may not have been new to the political parties, who do this research all the time, but it is the first time the public and the media will have seen the voter response so clearly and it will obviously influence future opinions and analysis. The various reactions to Bertie Ahern, Enda Kenny, Michael McDowell and Pat Rabbitte will live long in the memory.

Regardless of the criticisms, there can be no doubt that focus groups are going to increase in importance. Considering the success of last Sunday's show, it is inevitable that, for example, at the next leadership contest in Fianna Fail or Fine Gael, some TV station or newspaper will set up a focus group to assess the public reaction to the potential leadership candidates. Politics may never be the same again.




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