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Aspirant house buyers will unleash budget backlash



IT WAS Labour's Joan Burton who introduced the Beatles into the budget debate last Wednesday evening. The TD asked Brian Cowen if he knew the opening lines to 'Dear Prudence' and the finance minister kindly replied, "Won't you come out to play?" A smiling Burton then added, "It seems that she did not want to play, and so the minister's flirtation with Ms Prudence has proven rather short-lived. He decided that he had an election to win, and so prudence was left on the shelf."

Burton was right. Despite all that Cowen said, last week he delivered a bonanza giveaway.

Billions will be spent in the coming year arising from a highly political budget, with tax and expenditure commitments targeted at key groups of voters with a general election in mind.

But this was the budget of an economic manager rather than the work of someone with a bold imagination for how Irish society should develop in the generation ahead. There was no big statement about Ireland's future.

Given the largesse now available, the public could have expected more vision about how we plan our collective future. It will be interesting to see if next month's National Development Plan offers any more than a re-statement of this steady-as-it-goes philosophy.

One key constituency was, however, left shortchanged from the budget. Last September Michael McDowell raised the issue of stamp-duty reform. He did say any changes were for the next government to address but many felt it was a signal for early reform.

Stamp duty from property has become a huge revenue source for the government.

The failure to index thresholds with property inflation has been an underhand way of grabbing money from those with legitimate aspirations towards house ownership.

In the budget speech there was not even as much as a polite reference to McDowell's recent comments.

"In the current market situation, any stampduty cuts would more likely than not be incorporated into the sale price and so end up in the pocket of the seller. This will not help first-time buyers purchasing new homes, " the finance minister said.

Those two sentences were a slap in the face to the PD leader. It was not a good budget for the PDs. The glory of the top-income tax-rate cut was snatched from McDowell's party with the increased health level payment for high earners.

There may well have been a pining in PD circles for the days when Charlie McCreevy . . . a man with Fianna Fail blood but a PD heart . . .

was running the national finances. McCreevy may well have responded more generously to McDowell's stamp-duty argument.

Cowen offered some assistance to firsttime buyers with changes in mortgage interest relief. But that benefit will most likely be totally wiped out by the next increase in interest rates, which is expected in the first half of next year.

The current stamp-duty regime is the real problem. Reform is now inevitable. It will be a big theme of Election 2007. Indeed, by not even acknowledging the crippling impact of this now penal tax, particularly on first-time buyers in urban areas, Brian Cowen may well have left room for Fine Gael and Labour to exploit.

The government is highly exposed to an electoral backlash from those who aspire to purchase a home and those who wish to trade up from their first property purchase.

As the song goes, "Dear Prudence, won't you open up your eyes?"




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