HEINEKEN CUP POOL 4 CARDIFF v MUNSTER Arms Park, 1.00 Live, Sky Sports 2, 12.30 Referee C Berdos (France) There must have been an interesting little debate between the bean counters and the rugby brains in Cardiff at the start of the season. After they decided between them that the Blues' home Heineken Cup game against Leicester would be switched to the Millennium Stadium, they must surely have been tempted to take the same course of action for today's home game with Munster.
Clearly, though, the rugby brains got their own way on this one, no doubt making the point along the way that fixing today's game for the Millennium Stadium would have been something akin to actually allowing Munster to play at Thomond Park.
Their decision makes complete sense because while you'd have backed Munster to win hands down at the Millennium Stadium, playing the game right next door makes it necessary to delve a little deeper into the detail. Take the province's dismal record at the Arms Park, for instance. You'll know by this stage that Munster have previously lost two Heineken Cup games at the venue, 48-18 in 1996 and 43-23 in 1997, but it's also instructive to note that they've also been defeated on three of the four occasions they've visited the Arms Park in the Magners League.
It's fair to say that almost every player in Munster's starting line-up this afternoon has tasted defeat on that patch of grass at some point or other, and that may be difficult to wipe from the collective memory. But of course this is the Heineken Cup of 2006, not the competition of years ago that Munster had yet to fall in love with, or the Magners League for that matter, and you can be certain Declan Kidney's side will have their serious heads on this afternoon. The loss of both John Kelly and Barry Murphy through injury will be felt, and while the inclusion of Ian Dowling on the right wing may not weaken Munster all that much, Lifeimi Mafi has yet to prove that he's anywhere near as potent as Murphy in the outside centre slot. Today will tell what the Tongan passport holder is truly capable of.
Cardiff, as always, appear strong on paper but the sum of their parts is always something less than their individual abilities. Mike Phillips is as good a scrum-half as there is in Europe, Tom Shanklin is also a top player, while the likes of Ben Blair, Chris Czekaj and Jamie and Nick Robinson offer quite a varied running threat out wide.
The key for the home side will be to use those talents as frequently as possible, although Dai Young has already hinted this week that Cardiff will attempt to put some structure on the game. If they do as their coach has stated, they'll play right into their opponent's hands and if the expected rain and wind materialises around kick-off time in the Welsh capital, you'd be a fool to back against Munster. It's unlikely to be pretty, but Paul O'Connell's men should edge this one by a score.
CARDIFF B Blair; T Shanklin, J Robinson, M Stcherbina, C Czekaj; N Robinson, M Phillips;
G Jenkins, R Thomas, T Filise, D Jones, J Goode, S Morgan, M Williams, X Rush (c) MUNSTER S Payne; I Dowling, L Ma", T Halstead, A Horgan; R O'Gara, P Stringer; F Pucciariello, F Sheahan, J Hayes, D O'Callaghan, P O'Connell (c), A Quinlan, D Wallace, D Leamy
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