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Precision and agility are the keys for retailers
John Mulligan



CHRISTMAS shopping in Ireland used to be simple for retailers. People made the pilgrimage from the country to Dublin on 8 December to buy the fancies they couldn't get in their nearest market town and made a day of it at the city centre's middlebrow retailers like Clerys and Arnotts.

Today, things are far more complicated.

We want some things ultra-cheap and for the hottest must-have things there's no price we won't pay. And that's before you shop online.

For retailers, getting things right can be a real headache. Tom Harper, managing director of AC Nielsen in Ireland, said one of the most obvious problems is making sure effective stock levels are available to meet demand. Achieving balance becomes an important skill. Coowner of Dublin-based gadget shops Becool, Dermot Kelly knows all about it.

His company, which he founded with his brother Eamon, provided miniature handheld remote control helicopters to the Late Late Show's toy episode that aired a couple of weeks ago. He figured that it would boost sales. He just didn't realise by how much.

"We ordered 1,000 units about eight weeks ago, and we got another 1,000 this week, but we could probably have sold more, " he said. They retail at just under 70, so the 2,000 will net sales of 140,000.

The items were ordered from China and while Kelly had hoped to get his hands on 3,000, he'll have to make do with the shipments he got. Even ordering that many back in October was a risk, admitted Kelly, but he had a gut feeling that the product would sell well after being shown one by a UK distributor. Kelly has to get things right at this time of year. The Christmas period accounts for slightly over 50% of his total annual sales, which this year are likely to top 1.5m. That excludes sales from the company's website of "a couple of hundred thousand."

Even that was so busy that it had to stop taking orders last Thursday so that it could process items to ensure they'd be despatched in time for Christmas.

And at 70 a pop, those types of items are probably indicative of the changed trend towards purchasing more expensive, high-end gifts. People might be spending more, but they tend to be buying fewer items.

"I think that's the case alright, " agreed Damian Loscher, managing director of research firm TNS MRBI. "People want to buy presents that are individual and in some way unique. That's why this year for instance, I think you'll see a lot of art being bought for Christmas."

Giles Goldenberg, a Deloitte partner in charge of consumer business for Europe, said one of the biggest challenges for retailers is adapting to so-called "hypersegmentation" of the market. He described the Christmas period as "atypical" for retailers.

"That's because retailers do more volume than during the rest of the year, but also because consumers also like to be treated differently during the period, " he said. "This is all about the imperative for precision retailing in today's more competitive market. Precision and agility should be the key words for retailers."

One can only imagine that identifying a trend such as a growth in art sales during Christmas is tough to do, but Loscher said that by following international retail changes Irish sellers should have been able to foresee the movement.

"There really has been a shift towards indulgence and extravagance. The ultrapremium brands will be doing well, while there's also been a noticeable move towards the purchase of retro products."

Tom Harper also thinks that the premium end products are increasingly sought after, but that the buying dynamic is somewhat unusual.

"It's maybe a hard-to-prove theory, but I think that you're seeing even affluent consumers going to Aldi and Lidl to buy foodstuffs, but then splashing out on high-end products."

That's a phenomenon that Amarach Consulting boss Gerard O'Neill sees as well. He describes this as "U-Growth" and said that retailers left in the middle are getting "hammered".

"I think you're seeing that trend alright, where there's growth at two ends of the spectrum: the low-end, with cheap and cheerful items, and at the high end, where people might spend on more expensive food such as Tesco Finest. That's damaging those in the middle of the market and they have to decide where they want to position themselves." He cites Dunnes Stores as an example of such a retailer that is probably feeling a detrimental impact from changing habits.

While consumers around Christmas time have traditionally crammed their buying into the last week, the effect is likely to be more pronounced this year. That, say industry observers, is due to the fact that stores are now staying open even later than they did in previous years.

"I was surprised last week to walk on the mall and see how many shoppers there were at 9.45pm, " said the managing director of Dundrum shopping centre, Don Nugent.

Retailers such as Derek Hughes, who owns the Hughes & Hughes bookstore chain, also believe that last-minute Christmas shopping is on the increase.

"People are definitely leaving it later to buy gifts, " he said. "Christmas shopping is increasingly concentrated into the last week. For us, it's like trying to get the hay in. It's frenetic."

Another interesting change has been brought about by the introduction of the disposable 3V Visa credit card from Permanent TSB. Gerard O'Neill from Amarach believes it is having an impact on consumer trends. The card is pre-loaded with credit and enables non-holders of traditional credit cards to buy online.

"If you look at the level of online shopping, it's not huge in Ireland. However, I think that people are giving the preloaded 3V card as a gift, for example, and that you'll see a spike in online shopping after Christmas."

Deloitte recently predicted that Irish consumers would be the biggest spenders in Europe this Christmas, with households expected to post an average spend of 1,339. That, said Deloitte, is a 10% increase on 2005. The consultancy said that of that figure, 824 would be spent on gifts, 251 on food and 264 on socialising. Deloitte also said that 60% of Irish shoppers do most of their spending in the last few days before Christmas.

Irish shoppers have also been able to benefit, somewhat curiously, from preChristmas sales at Irish outlets of UK retailers such as Debenhams. Despite a modestly growing UK economy, retailing there has been stuck in what Gerard O'Neill described as a "mini-recession".

That has prompted UK retailers to cut prices to lure consumers. But because policy is imposed across the board, almost regardless of geography, Irish divisions that would have performed well without sales are also introducing sales.

Debenhams, which recently acquired the lease on nine Roches Stores outlets at a cost of 29m, reported profits in Ireland of 3.5m in its last financial year, up 18% on the previous year.

And if there's one excuse Irish shoppers need to spend even more, surely it's a sale.

Roll on Wednesday week.




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