23 November, Dalkey, Co Dublin
WE return from Milan to attend an exhibition in Clodagh's Dalkey Tramyard gallery of Seapoint artist Mark 'Pablo' Cullen, who is making waves. I bought one of his first paintings for a pittance. Now he declines commissions from would-be patrons! The former Irish hockey international dropped production management for his art . . . following the example of father Tom and brother Steven Cullen.
More industrial workers may face a similar choice as Ireland loses cost competitiveness. We need to seek out niches, like art, where creativity and excellence earn a price premium.
Many make the transition: computer experts Bernard and Rosie Walsh returned from London to their Carlow family farm. Rather than struggle in commodity business, Rosie studied food at Ballymaloe. They tested agri-business ideas before launching 'Hot Irishman' Irish coffee mix . . . a play on Bernard's flaming hair and salesman's plamas.
Their steaming success won Irish and international awards. There already were four such products in the US alone. But a combination of product quality and astute marketing found the sweet spot of customer willingness to pay more for excellence.
More farmers should concentrate on customers rather than production.
1 December, Carton House, Maynooth Our Christmas party was in the magnificent seat of the FitzGeralds. Carton House is a choice location for anyone interested in Irish history or just a weekend off.
Mr Kamikawa sings Japanese sean nos. I ask former Ireland Fund chief Willie McCarter what Terence O'Neill would have made of demands that "Paisley must go!" We agree that Brian Faulkner might have reformed quickly enough to avoid the Troubles when 1960s Ulster stood at the crossroads.
Bankers thought Lee Mallaghan was mad to buy the dilapidated estate. Now his vision symbolises stylish self-confidence in resurgent Ireland.
4 to 8 December, Icaria, Peruvian Amazonia To avoid Shell's problems in Mayo, we organised a community workshop in the jungle: emotions are stronger than rationality; attitudes are formed early and once formed are hard to change.
The reality differs from romantic notions:
Amazonia is humid and hot. There were no flush toilets, no running water and no potable water.
There are river parasites as well as piranhas and alligators.
The only access is by boat. There are no phones in the interior . . . though they have generators. Those romanticising primitive life should spend time in the jungle. It's only bearable because of petrochemicals and modern medicines. Mortality rates are awful . . . though children smile with perfect teeth. Worse, there's no booze to deter mosquitos, as many indigenous people are evangelical Christians. From Iran to Ballymena, I am pursued by fundamentalists!
We diplomatically lost a soccer game against them by one goal (see picture). The indigenes took it seriously: 180 representatives turned up from 62 communities. Some . . . including women with babies . . . travelled eight hours by boat.
The state oil company, PeruPetro, were wellorganised and impressive. It was democracy in action, as people let off steam, complained about absent infrastructure and jobs. They talked from 8am till late for two days.
People speak indigenous languages . . . which sound vaguely oriental. They even have their the creativity or flair of the above boys, this is the swot of the class . . . no messing about, just slow but consistent progress. Watching this sleepy stock is no adrenaline rush, but it has contributed the best part of 1,000 to the trading coffers by creeping up to 52-week highs at 29.60, where I exited half of my position. I've raised my stop on the remainder of my position to breakeven ( just under 28), so at worst I'm looking at an overall profit of around 500. It would be very bullish if the stock does break through 30. Fingers crossed.
The main news this week was the Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25%. Actually, you couldn't call that news . . . everyone knew there would be no change in rates. The market was more interested in whether the Fed's policy statement would give any clues as to whether rate cuts are likely in the coming months.
Futures traders are pricing in a likely cut of 0.5% by next May, with more cuts to follow. A benign interest-rate outlook has been a major force behind the rally of the last few months. Yet nothing in the aforementioned policy statement hinted that cuts are on the way. Instead, the usual noises about inflation concerns were re-iterated. In other words, market participants appear to be overly optimistic in relation to the interest-rate outlook.
So am I going short? You must be joking. Even own form of Bearlachas . . . a pidgin you can follow with only Spanish.
I was there to listen, rather than speak . . .
though more to be seen. When I handed a business card out, they all demanded one!
There are no NGOs and the only state presence was a school and a nurse . . . so locals are hospitable, self-reliant and enthusiastic about development. Many spoke limited Spanish, so I spoke simply about how Ireland had gone from famine and emigration to prosperity.
One gentleman sported a Che Guevara tshirt, so I stressed that Che was a Lynch educated by Irish religious. Mentioning the movie Motorcycle Diaries, I said we wouldn't act like Anaconda Mining's ganger in the movie . . . omitting to add that Anaconda was founded by Irishmen in Montana!
We explained our work by reference to people's everyday lives: satellite imagery is like a hunting bird's perspective, seismic is like stalking, drilling like hunting.
During the environmental section, a large dragonfly buzzed around our heads. The oilmen studiously ignored the creature, but a local zapped it effortlessly, while another squashed it underfoot.
Yet just as there are wise fools, there are foolish experts: that night the environmental expert was frightened by a rat in the latrine! I could hardly keep a straight face. Compared to piranhas, snakes and tarantulas, rodents are a low risk. Now we must only find oil.
7 December, Pucallpa, Amazonia As we moved through the Ucayali river, my 'Crackberry' suddenly squawked into life. One was from the Irish Honorary Consul, Michael Russell.
Apparently some Irish tourists were stranded in Peru, having lost their passports. Impatient with bureaucratic delay, the consul decided to save time and money getting someone to deliver documents fast.
He tracked me down in one of the most remote corners on Earth . . . knowing I was staying only a few days. He suggested we meet on my way through Lima and I hand deliver the package to the department.
Taxpayers get some value for a 700 yearly stipend. We should use more honorary consuls!
9 December, Amsterdam Airport En route to Dublin to deliver the diplomatic package and then straight to a party thrown by legal eagle, Seamus Connolly.
I didn't want to appear with one arm as long as the other so I bought a couple of decent clarets and an Edam cheese at the Dutch Antilles duty free . . . but not before checking the rules. An official insisted that I could take these through Amsterdam airport provided I stayed in transit, kept the receipt and kept the products sealed.
The Amsterdam security staff waved the cheese through and seemed relaxed about the wine until they saw the vintage . . . after which the rules were applied strictly! Would they have confiscated plonk?
Maybe Santa comes early to Holland!
if the market is being excessively hopeful, that's not to say the current bullish bias will change. John Maynard Keynes was right when he said that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Secondly, the best economists in the world can't agree over such matters, so I hardly assume that I have all the answers.
As it happens, market reaction has been something of a non-event, with a tight trading range and a marked decrease in volatility over the last few weeks. Bulls keep re-iterating that December is the stock market's strongest month and that the usual little Christmas rally will soon ensue, although I think that argument would have more force if the indices were not as strong as they have been over the last few months. September is supposedly the market's worst month . . . this year, it was anything but.
What's a monkey to do? Keep a mixture of long and short positions, methinks. No new positions this week, but I expect to enroll a few more students over the coming weeks (apologies, that's the end of that excruciating metaphor). Having said a full farewell to Apple and a partial to Elan, SanDisk and CRH, there's plenty cash lolling around in the account and I intend to use it.
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