We've heard rather less about something of much more immediate relevance to the upcoming general election: the Obama Factor.

The Obama Factor is what's fascinating American political observers at the moment.

Illinois Democratic senator Barack Obama, one handsome lump of African-American charm, is attracting bigger crowds, airtime, column inches and campaign money than any other potential presidential candidate. And he hasn't even declared yet.

It's happening for a number of reasons. He's young, good-looking and carries none of the baggage acquired by more experienced Democrats, who have to explain away problems like voting for the war in Iraq. He's clever and charismatic and possessed of a selfdeprecating wit. He's black without any of the threatening rage or infidelity issues which have crippled the hopes of men like Jesse Jackson.

But the biggest thing he has going for him is his ability to offer American voters something different, something hopeful. He doesn't keep dissecting failed Republican promises, showcasing Republican hate figures and reminding the voters of their responsibility for the creation of a nowdespised administration.

He may have peaked too soon. He may soon be exposed as all vision, no specifics. But - right now - he has cottoned on to a fundamental principle of election-winning: people vote for candidates who make the voter feel better about the voter.

Floating voters are always in the self-esteem business.

They want to believe that they're risktaking idealists. That they can't be bought. That they care about more than back-pocket money and security.

That their vote speaks to their faith in a better future and to their rejection of a squalid present.

It's that last consideration that, over the past couple of years, has hobbled the opposition in this country. They've been enthusiastically barking up the wrong tree, convinced that if they prove to the voter that Fianna F�?il is essentially and irrevocably corrupt and that the PDs are heartless fascists, all will be well. They've missed the positive future tense part of the equation.

They haven't been helped by Taoiseach's Questions. The format of this D�?il procedure requires them to put questions to the Taoiseach. Surrounded as the three opposition leaders are by advisers pushing the flawed notion of "strong opposition", this has meant that, week in, week out, the three of them get delivered into the nation's sitting rooms, courtesy of TV soundbites, as boring, negative, eternally complaining whinges.

Inevitable? Not at all. Political leadership isn't just about inventing policies and keeping the troops motivated.

It's about finding new ways to use - nay, re-invent - old procedures. During the Christmas break, the opposition party leaders would be well-advised to figure out how to use the most frequently televised D�?il procedure in a way that doesn't continue to do them damage. It's a weekly opportunity to put the Obama factor in play, and they'd better get the hang of it, smartish.

The Obama factor is quintessentially future tense. It assumes people prefer the wide blue yonder of tomorrow to the recycled sock-smell of yesterday.

Simple? Obvious?

Not to the powers-that-be in some of the opposition parties, one of which, this week, as the rest of us were scissoring ribbons into curly fronds and trying to conceal parcels with giveaway shapes, was demanding time for a D�?il debate on the Moriarty Report, Vol I.

Which is a bit like putting down a motion demanding the right to serve semolina pudding on Christmas Day:

why the hell would you want to?

The answer depends on which bit of the non-tree you're barking up. If you're barking up the Duty of the Opposition bit, you believe a report so significant should not be allowed to pass without your TDs hammering home the implications. If you're barking up the Culture of Crookedness bit, you want yet another chance to point out to the plain people of Ireland that "Haughey didn't do this all on his own, you know."

Never mind that the people of Ireland, or at least those represented in opinion polls, are bored rigid by that stuff. Not to mention those for whom the events recorded by the Moriarty Report are distant history, belonging to the bad old days before Ryanair, cappuccinos in cardboard beakers and pre-Christmas shopping in American outlet malls.

The old management adage applies.

If you keep doing what you've always done, you'll keep getting what you've always got. And, for Labour, Fine Gael and the Greens, that ain't enough.

If they keep doing what they've always done in the past year, they'll keep getting - post-election - what they've always got.

Seats on the opposition benches.