Michael Fitzgerald will soon make a decision on whether to run as an independent. Local political sources say there is "big support" for Fitzgerald, and a lot of pressure to stand.

"Lots of people have approached Michael and he is giving it a lot of thought. He never set out to be a candidate.

He will make his mind up in the New Year, " a source said.

The source added that, 10 weeks on from Fitzgerald's controversial comments, support for the 50-year-old councillor has held firm. He believed Fitzgerald was "inclined" towards running, but would not be rushed into a decision.

He added: "If Michael is on the ballot paper, he will win a seat."

Another political source in the constituency said that if Fitzgerald does stand, "he will put a big hole in [Fine Gael TD] Tom Hayes' vote".

Sources on the ground insist support for Fitzgerald is not just coming from publicans, but from ordinary voters "concerned about increasing isolation" in rural Ireland.

"Michael has had people come up to him and say that TDs didn't have the guts to say what he did, " one said.

Fitzgerald attracted widespread criticism when he told Tipp FM there was nothing wrong with driving home after drinking three or four pints. He later told third-level students in Tipperary Institute that he regretted the way he made his comments, but not the message about rural isolation.

Meanwhile, an in-depth analysis of the 43 Dail constituencies in today's Sunday Tribune suggests Fianna Fail and the PDs could be on course for a third term in office.