Analysis of the constituencies carried out elsewhere on these pages suggests that the Fianna Fail/PD government has a seriously good chance of being returned for a historic third term come next May.

However, a lot can happen between now and the general election, and the health of any democracy requires that, at the very least, there must be the prospect of change.

But while voters will have a choice next May, as of now neither side looks particularly inspiring. The Fianna Fail/PD government has undoubtedly managed the economy very well, but its performance in delivering infrastructure and improvements in public services has been extremely mixed, to say the least.

Why is it, for example, that after a decade of unprecedented riches, children still have to wait up to four years for psychiatric assessment? The Taoiseach would be wise to bear in mind the fate of those children, if he is ever tempted to repeat his recent assertion that the controversy about his personal finances was "hugely unfair".

Meanwhile, the alternative of Fine Gael and Labour has so far failed to excite voters with its policies; indeed there seem to have been as many differences as points in common over recent months.

The two parties will no doubt argue that the time to reveal their policy platforms is closer to the actual election. But, if they leave it too late, they run the risk of handing an irretrievable initiative to the government parties. It is not enough for the two parties to highlight the government's failings . . . we know what they are. Fine Gael and Labour must show in some detail how they will do the job better. If they can do that, then we really will have a contest and that can only be a good thing.