EVERYONE has come down with colds. They run "at out for months and then . . . when they can catch breath . . . their bodies shut down to recharge batteries. But it doesn't stop us swimming on Xmas day. For the second year my 10 year-old insists on diving in . . . twice.

We watch Veronica Guerin and discuss journalists we know who put themselves in danger. Guerin's risks seem disproportionate to the rewards. By contrast, Richard Downes' In Search of Iraqmemoir takes a pragmatic approach as he paints characters with an artist's eye. He could have interviewed insurgents personally, but sensibly farmed the task out to locals at less hazard.

Downes knew that embedded journalists were 'presstitutes', but bowed to the inevitable, maintaining a maverick scepticism. He would be hard to mislead.

Conflict reporters over-react to recent events: they were unreasonably optimistic in 2003 and excessively pessimistic now. Events like Saddam's execution make no practical difference. Cynicism is more reliable than sentimentality. Excessive sensitivity dulls your edge. Like Rothschild in 1815, buy when there's blood on the streets.

Imagine the money made by those who bought Japanese or German blue-chips in 1949.

A British security man complained to me that the RTE crew unnecessarily endangered themselves by interviewing locals. By contrast, CNN's news crew . . . with whom he'd previously worked . . . spent only 15 minutes daily in the field. At breakfast they worked out the story, planned necessary local colour and deferred to security 'advice'. To the military mind, this made sense. Why waste time on natives? The best you achieve is a clear view of an unclear situation. Too nuanced a story will be 'off-message' at home, and ignored.

Who is right depends on your objective.

Reconnaissance to a soldier is about imminent developments, not long-term factors. If reporting is having an open mind and deeper understanding, RTE is better. But if showbusiness is about communicating and profit, CNN's approach is more effective.

Mercenaries seek to maximise income and minimise risk. Business players also seek risk-adjusted returns, but longer-term. They must understand like RTE but communicate like CNN.

Yet the mercenary was no fool. He had served in Ireland and admired the professionalism of the UDR, RUC and, maybe surprisingly, the IRA. We were together when I met my first Iranians in Iraq: in the Shia stronghold of Nasariya. In Saddam's army it was rare to meet an officer without some English. The Shia militia were more insular and Islamic. But at least the militiamen spoke Arabic. I was mystified by their officers' difficulty in understanding us. Their dialect sounded vaguely familiar, like Pakistan's Urdu. But they weren't speaking Urdu.

Pakistanis use Persian words. They were Iranians, speaking Farsi. They were also paler, taller and more wary than Arabs.

The English mercenary independently came to similar conclusions. As we were jostled, his instincts were to back away. Mine were to get close to the commanders, make eye contact and explain we were Irish. Ignore the translator: maintain eye contact with the key player and use universal gestures. Over the following years I realised that Iranians were only friends we hadn't yet met.

21 December, Dublin . . . airtime!

There's no better way to learn than to teach. When a call comes from BBC World's business desk, searching questions follow. Examples last year included French police questioning Total's rising star, NGO concerns over Iraqi oil contracts and reconstruction. Though polite, they're not fobbed off by standard responses. Most questioners look at the obvious. Some dig deeper. BBC researchers bore several levels down. Weaknesses in your responses become obvious.

This time the BBC wanted to know why Iranian oil investment is suffering. You're tempted to repeat industry platitudes or say what people want to hear.

Energy mixes money, science and politics. Whether intended or not, Washington pressures Tehran not so much with US sanctions (enforced since 1979) but by increasing risk. Banks aren't extending credit lines or even opening new letters of credit. Investors defer investments. There is little downside to delay while simultaneously declaring commitment to proceeding.

Uncertainty increases the required rate of return. Yet rising resource nationalism, from Russia to Mayo, increases pressure to raise taxes.

But sanctions are a double-edged sword: by postponing necessary investment, they keep US companies out of a strategic market and maintain high energy prices. Economic pressure can prove counterproductive, triggering nationalism. The Iranian authorities now have foreign scapegoats, though their own bureaucracy and inappropriate laws exert a greater brake on progress: they currently deal only with oil majors, but not every successful animal is an elephant.

Time has little value in developing countries, yet time is critical in finance. By haggling endlessly and seeking to reopen closed deals, bureaucrats destroy value. There are players . . . chiefly Chinese and Russian . . . that meet their criteria, but they tend to be less agile and ef"cient than western independents.

You'd think, after Hutton, that the BBC would be sick of ponti"cating Ulstermen!

19 December, Geological Survey, Dublin

Only one other investor turned up to a technical presentation by Providence's John O'Sullivan at the Geological Survey at Dublin's Beggars' Bush. Not a single stockbroker appeared. So much for technical data and scientific analysis!

O'Sullivan's impressive review highlighted the challenges of Ireland's offshore: Spanish Point gas field is 150km offshore (nearly twice Corrib, already the world's second-longest tie-back) in over 300 metres of water. The main targets are complex, dif"cult and 4,000 metres below the sea bed.

Economics seem now OK provided energy prices stay high. Upside at Spanish Point seems limited, though recoveries might be enhanced through new techniques.

Landfall would be at the Shannon estuary, serving the Irish market by pipeline, though excess production could be exported. You can see why Ireland's fiscal terms are favourable: this would be uneconomic if the Stagg/Ferris proposals were enacted.

O'Sullivan honourably distanced himself from media hype. Dunquin is pure exploration, potentially big but costly and high-risk. No comfort was offered on when or whether Sugar Daddy Exxon would drill. The locations are remote from other operations. Costs are high because of location and lack of shared infrastructure. Environmental concerns may increase cost and delay.

12 December, Geneva, Switzerland

Normally you'd enjoy visiting the Quatre Saisons hotel, famous for WWII intrigue. Unfortunately my Amazonian trip has caught up with me, necessitating several sessions on the throne while waiting for medication to take effect. Incongruously, the musak blasting out in the luxurious surroundings is best known as 'The Workers' Flag', until I remember that Lenin sought Swiss sanctuary.

While meeting with a Russian, Armenian and Italian Swiss, an old acquaintance from the British oil industry appeared. At his table there is an American geologist I also know. They're Geneva-based, but how much of our conversation did they overhear?

My 'Inca's revenge' gets progressively worse, with me spending most of the night up and the day in bed.

Happily with mobile, PC and broadband, you can conduct business 'on the run'! Switzerland is more glamorous when the runs are for skis!